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DOGE Midterm October Market History: Stocks & Bitcoin
How the S&P 500 and Bitcoin actually performed from October 1 to Election Day in every midterm election year since 1998 — real closes, real returns, no cherry-picking.
S&P 500: October 1 → Election Day
| Year | Election Day | Oct 1 Close | Election Day Close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Nov 8 | 3,678.43 | 3,828.11 | +4.07% |
| 2018 | Nov 6 | 2,924.59 | 2,755.45 | −5.78% |
| 2014 | Nov 4 | 1,946.16 | 2,012.10 | +3.39% |
| 2010 | Nov 2 | 1,146.24 | 1,193.57 | +4.13% |
| 2006 | Nov 7 | 1,331.32 | 1,382.84 | +3.87% |
| 2002 | Nov 5 | 847.91 | 915.39 | +7.96% |
| 1998 | Nov 3 | 986.39 | 1,110.84 | +12.62% |
Daily closing data. 2022 uses the Oct 3 close (Oct 1 was a Saturday); 2006 uses Oct 2 (Oct 1 was a Sunday).
Bitcoin: October 1 → Election Day
| Year | Election Day | Oct 1 Price | Election Day Price | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Nov 8 | $19,309.87 | $18,541.93 | −3.98% | FTX collapsed on Election Day (−10% that day) |
| 2018 | Nov 6 | $6,589.62 | $6,461.01 | −1.95% | Range-bound; the big crash came Nov 14 |
| 2014 | Nov 4 | $383.61 | $330.49 | −13.85% | Post–Mt. Gox bear market |
Bitcoin diverged from stocks in every midterm cycle on record — a reminder that crypto does not always follow equities into elections.
When Did October Bottom?
Aside from 2018, every midterm October low landed in the first half of the month — then markets rallied into month-end.
5 Patterns Worth Knowing
- Midterm October is stocks’ best month. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged +3.0% in October of midterm years, positive 73.7% of the time (Carson Group). November adds +2.7% on average.
- Lows cluster early, rallies run late. Five of six bottoms fell between Oct 4 and Oct 15. Patience through early-October chop was rewarded in every cycle except 2018.
- Bitcoin marched to its own drum. 0-for-3 in midterm Octobers. Crypto-specific shocks (FTX, Mt. Gox aftermath) overrode any election seasonality.
- Election Day brings relief. The S&P 500 rose the day after the vote in 6 of 7 midterms — 2018’s +2.12% relief rally is the textbook case. Only 2022 fell (−2.08% on FTX contagion), then ripped +5.54% the next day on soft CPI.
- The year after is the real prize. The 12 months following a midterm election have averaged roughly +15% across 20 cycles since 1946 — never negative (Carson Group, BofA).
Methodology & Sources
S&P 500 and BTC/USD daily closes verified via StatMuse daily tables and Yahoo Finance chart data (checked Oct 9, 2026). Seasonality statistics: Ryan Detrick / Carson Group (Oct 2026), UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management, Bank of America. Event context: Nasdaq, TheStreet, Federal Reserve records. Sample sizes are small (7 stock cycles, 3 Bitcoin cycles) — treat these as historical tendencies, not forecasts.
Not financial advice. This page is a historical record for educational purposes. Past performance does not predict future results. Data compiled October 2026.