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Saturday opens on two fronts. Overnight, a tanker and a container ship were attacked off the coast of Oman — the first reported ship attacks in the Gulf in more than ten days — and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again after briefly opening it on Friday. Meanwhile, Friday’s weak September jobs data plus a wave of dovish Fed commentary has cut the market’s odds of an October rate hike to roughly one in five, per CME FedWatch.
Ships Attacked Off Oman; Strait of Hormuz Shuts Again
The UK Maritime Trade Operations center reported that a tanker and a container ship came under attack off the coast of Oman — the first reported attacks on ships in the region in more than ten days. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said the strait, which it briefly opened on Friday, will stay closed until the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports.
Tehran’s state media claimed a 2.5-million-barrel supertanker was hit — an account with no independent confirmation from Omani maritime authorities or the vessel’s operator. India’s foreign ministry separately said two Indian-flagged ships were involved in a “shooting incident” in the strait.
The diplomacy is moving, if unevenly. President Trump said “very good conversations” are underway with Iran but the US will not be “blackmailed” over the waterway. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said new US proposals have been put forward and are “currently reviewing” them — a step beyond this week’s deadlock.
- First ship attacks in 10+ days — UKMTO reports off Oman
- Strait closed after brief Friday opening — IRGC Navy
- Iranian claim: 2.5M-barrel tanker hit — unconfirmed
- India: two Indian-flagged ships in “shooting incident”
- Trump: “very good conversations,” no “blackmail”; Iran reviewing new US proposals
For markets, this re-prices the war premium overnight. Crude futures had been fading the crisis on Friday; an unverified tanker strike and a closed strait put freight and war-risk insurance costs — the real transmission channel into diesel and jet fuel — back in focus. Futures reopen Sunday at 6 p.m. ET.
Fed’s October Hike Odds Collapse to About 1 in 5
September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs against roughly 84,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.2% — and the market has torn up its October hike pricing. CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a hike at the Oct. 27–28 meeting near 20%, down from about 64% a week earlier.
New York Fed President John Williams told a Buffalo audience there is “no need for urgency” after September’s hike to 3.75%–4%. His base case is one more increase late this year, with inflation back to 2% by 2028 — a year sooner than September’s median projection. Governor Michael Barr argued the other way: more hikes are “likely to be needed” because high energy prices and AI investment have knocked progress “off course.”
The next hard data point is the September CPI, due Oct. 14 — one payroll print does not set policy. Related reading: Market News Roundup — Oct 1: Kashkari hawkish, Nvidia financing doubts.
Oil: Friday’s Relief Meets a New Weekend Risk
Crude closed Friday lower on the G-7’s 100-million-barrel reserve release and recovering Hormuz flows — WTI down 4% to $89.22 and Brent down 2.7% to $99.56, per Barron’s. Gulf grades kept their war premium: Abu Dhabi’s Murban sat at $110.82, about $11 over Brent.
The shortage is still in products, not crude. US retail diesel averaged $6.37 a gallon Friday, off a $6.52 record set Sept. 22; European gasoil cracks slid from a near-record $79 a barrel toward $69.70 as the release headlines hit. Saudi Arabia more than doubled exports to roughly 5.4 million barrels a day in September — yet J.P. Morgan still puts Gulf product flows about 40% below prewar export levels.
- WTI $89.22 (-4%), Brent $99.56 (-2.7%) — Friday close, per Barron’s
- Murban $110.82 — war premium intact
- US diesel $6.37/gal vs $6.52 record (Sept. 22)
- Gasoil cracks ~$69.70 from ~$79
- Saudi exports ~5.4M bpd in Sept (from ~2.45M)
- Standard Chartered raised its 2026 forecast to Brent $92 / WTI $86
The G-7 release compresses cracks before it compresses flat price. With the strait closed again, crude’s direction into Monday’s open is an overnight negotiation between the reserve headlines and the war premium.
FDA Approves Komzifti, First Once-Daily Oral Menin Inhibitor
The FDA approved Komzifti (ziftomenib) for adults with relapsed or refractory NPM1-mutated acute myeloid leukemia, the first once-daily oral menin inhibitor cleared for the disease. The approval rested on the Phase II KOMET-001 trial, which showed meaningful remission rates and durable responses with a manageable safety profile in a population with limited options.
This is precision oncology in action — a drug built for a defined genetic mutation, taken as a daily pill instead of infused chemotherapy. For investors, the watch item is the commercial ramp: AML is a small but high-value market, and label expansion into earlier lines of treatment would widen the addressable pool.
- First once-daily oral menin inhibitor — Komzifti (ziftomenib)
- Indication: relapsed/refractory NPM1-mutated AML
- Basis: Phase II KOMET-001 trial
Crypto Regulation: SEC Moves on Custody as CLARITY Stays Dead
With the CLARITY Act stalled after its 49–50 Sept. 15 cloture vote fell short of the 60 needed, regulators are writing the rules themselves. On Oct. 1 the SEC proposed a crypto custody framework for registered investment advisers and regulated funds, alongside its earlier Regulation Crypto Assets proposal — a roughly 400-page package with 154 numbered questions.
Comments close Oct. 20; nothing takes effect until a final vote. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has separately directed staff to draft a crypto market-structure regime under existing Commodity Exchange Act authority, including spot-market supervision. Senator Cynthia Lummis posted Oct. 2 blaming Democrats for opposing the bill over customer-protection provisions, tying the failure to the absence of FTX-style asset-segregation rules. Related reading: Tracking the CLARITY Act.
- SEC crypto custody proposal (Oct. 1) — advisers + regulated funds
- Regulation Crypto Assets: File S7-2026-27, ~400 pages, 154 questions
- CLARITY cloture: 49–50 (needed 60)
With Hormuz shut again and October hike odds down to one in five, which is the bigger Q4 risk for your portfolio — another energy price shock, or the Fed hiking into a weakening labor market? Share your take below.
Sources: UKMTO via regional live coverage (live feed); Atlas360 (tanker attack claim); Reuters (Williams, Barr); Seeking Alpha (case for a pause); Barron’s (crude falls); Geopolitics Unplugged (G-7 release analysis); NewsTarget (export recovery); Applied Clinical Trials (Komzifti approval); Sarson Funds (SEC custody proposal); Crypto Times (Lummis post).
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
Not financial advice.
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