Market News Roundup — Oct 12: Oil Spikes, Ceasefire Falters

Monday’s session opens under the shadow of a dangerous weekend in the Gulf. Houthi missile strikes on Riyadh’s international airport killed at least a dozen people, tanker attacks returned to the Strait of Hormuz, and crude oil surged back above $106 a barrel — just as a Trump-announced “energy ceasefire” in Ukraine appeared to collapse within hours. Bank earnings land Tuesday and September CPI on Wednesday: a pivotal week for a market at record highs on fragile foundations.

Gulf escalation: Houthi strikes kill at least 12 at Riyadh airport; oil jumps back above $106

Saturday’s missile strike on King Khalid International Airport killed at least 12 people and wounded more than 300, per Saudi authorities cited by Reuters and The Times — the deadliest attack on Saudi soil in decades. The dead included four Saudis, an American, two Bangladeshis, and citizens of Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Sudan and Egypt. A second strike on Sunday killed one more and injured 11; airport operations remain suspended, and the U.S. FAA warned airlines to exercise caution over Saudi Arabia.

President Trump said Saturday the U.S. is considering joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis: “We may. We’re going to look at it. We just found out about the recent attack, so we’ll make a decision. We move very quickly.” The Times reports Turkey and Pakistan are sending troops to support Saudi Arabia.

Crude surged: Brent rose about 2% Monday morning to $106.80 a barrel, WTI to $93.78 — the highest in nearly two weeks, per Oilprice.com. Two tankers were attacked over the weekend, one by a drone near Oman and another by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, per Reuters. OPEC cut its 2026 demand-growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day, down from 1.4 million at the year’s start; Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 from $85.

Why it matters: with Brent back at $107 and the front of the curve about $3 in backwardation, oil is again the market’s biggest inflation wildcard heading into Wednesday’s CPI — and a U.S. entry into the Saudi-Houthi fight would widen the Iran war’s theater.

Trump’s “energy ceasefire” unravels within hours

On Sunday, President Trump posted that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire,” effective immediately: “Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” President Zelensky called the announcement “news to me” but said Kyiv would comply if Moscow did.

On Monday, Zelensky said Russia had already violated it — a strike on a Kharkiv power plant hours after Trump’s post, and a jet-powered Shahed drone hitting a Ukrainian gas facility overnight. The Kremlin offered no confirmation; spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that “contacts are ongoing.” A near-identical mid-September declaration also fizzled.

Senators pushed back on Trump’s separate diesel deal with Putin: Sen. Thom Tillis told NBC’s Meet the Press there is “a legitimate case for saying the president’s not following the law.” The Treasury has licensed Russian diesel cargoes through April 7, 2027.

Why it matters: the credibility gap means energy markets cannot price in de-escalation — the risk premium stays. With diesel at $6.28 a gallon nationally, fuel costs remain a midterm headache for the White House.

Chip stocks extend their losing streak as Nvidia retreats from its record

The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 2.3% on Monday, heading for a fourth straight decline — down 7% over the streak to its lowest close since Sept. 18, with all 30 components in the red, per MarketWatch. The SOXX ETF fell about 2%; Roundhill’s DRAM ETF dropped 4.5%.

Nvidia slid 1.7% to about $227, now 5.8% below its Oct. 6 record high of $239.24. ICAP strategist Walter Zimmerman warns the chart shows a “bearish rising wedge”: the first daily test is $210, and a monthly close below $204.84 would be the first warning signal. The FT reported Saturday that Nvidia is in talks to buy or invest further in AI model developer Reflection AI.

Why it matters: chips led this bull run, and the selloff lands amid questions about whether the AI buildout is debt-funded and nearing a peak. A 7% SOX drawdown in four sessions puts the market’s narrow leadership under its first real stress test in weeks.

A pivotal week: bank earnings Tuesday, CPI Wednesday

Stocks hovered near records at Monday’s open: the Dow gained about 0.3–0.4% while the S&P 500 was little changed and the Nasdaq slipped around 0.2%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs Friday, up 1.2% and 0.6% on the week. The bond market was closed for Columbus Day; the 10-year Treasury closed Friday at 5.24%, two days after touching 5.37% — its highest in more than 24 years.

Earnings season starts Tuesday with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo before the bell. Wednesday brings September CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET: forecasts point to headline inflation rising to roughly 3.6–3.7% year over year from 3.4% in August, with core near 2.5%.

The Fed meets Oct. 27–28. September’s minutes showed most officials expect another rate hike by year-end, but futures price less than a 1-in-5 chance of a move in October, per Reuters.

Why it matters: a hot CPI print would validate the bond market’s 5.37% warning shot and harden the case for a December hike. A cool one gives the record run room to breathe.

Amazon in talks to buy AI startup Decart for around $7 billion

Amazon is in talks to acquire Decart, an Israeli-founded AI startup, for around $7 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter. Decart was valued at nearly $4 billion in May, per PitchBook, and raised $300 million that month in a round led by Radical Ventures with Nvidia joining as a new investor.

Decart’s Lucy model edits live video in real time; its Oasis model generates simulated environments for training robots and self-driving systems. Its software also lets AI models run across different chip architectures. Anthropic explored a $6 billion acquisition in August but walked away after due diligence last month, Bloomberg reported.

Why it matters: $7 billion would be nearly double Decart’s May valuation — AI infrastructure assets still command scarcity premiums even as chip stocks wobble, deepening Amazon’s vertical AI stack from Trainium chips through AWS.

Bitcoin back above $84,000 despite record ETF outflows

Bitcoin reclaimed $84,000 over the weekend, trading near $84,150 early Monday before easing to about $82,900, per TradingView and Investopedia. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs suffered $681 million in weekly outflows — the largest since June, per SoSoValue data cited by CoinDesk.

Ether traded near $2,550, up about 2%; XRP held around $1.42; Solana added roughly 3% to about $113. Analysts see $82,000 as the key support level and Wednesday’s CPI as the next major catalyst.

Why it matters: BTC’s resilience through the outflow deluge shows dip-buying is alive — but with yields at 24-year highs, the path of least resistance runs through Wednesday’s inflation print.

Related reading: this morning’s full market briefing · yesterday’s news roundup

Discussion question: With CPI landing Wednesday and oil back above $106, which risk worries you more for the rest of October — inflation forcing another Fed rate hike, or an energy supply shock out of the Gulf? Share your take in the comments.

Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.

Not financial advice.

Sources

• The Times — Saudi Arabia airport hit by second Houthi strike
• Wall Street Journal — Iran-backed Houthis hit Saudi capital’s airport
• Reuters — Oil climbs as Mideast conflict, tanker attacks persist
• Oilprice.com — Oil jumps 2% as Saudi attacks revive Hormuz fears
• Barron’s — Oil prices rise as Saudi attacks add uncertainty
• LiveMint — Rezaei: Washington’s Hormuz response “inadequate”
• CNN — Zelensky: Russia already violated energy ceasefire
• MarketWatch — Chip sector extends losing streak
• Barron’s — Nvidia’s stock chart offers a warning
• Investopedia — Stock market today: indexes little changed
• Barron’s — Fed minutes offer a guide to future rate moves
• Reuters — Amazon in talks to buy AI startup Decart
• CoinDesk — Bitcoin shrugs off ETF outflows