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JPMorgan broke its long streak of beating estimates on Tuesday. The bank reported third-quarter earnings of $5.57 per share, short of the $5.90 consensus, on managed revenue of $50.9 billion (+8% YoY), which also trailed expectations near $51.2 billion.
Key figures (Q3 2026):
- Net income: $15.3 billion, EPS $5.57 (vs $5.07 a year ago)
- Managed revenue: $50.9 billion, +8% YoY (below ~$51.2B consensus)
- Net interest income: $27.15 billion vs $26.84B estimate — a beat
- Full-year 2026 NII guidance: raised to ~$106.2B (from $105.5B)
- Share buybacks: $1.06 billion, down 84% from Q2
The miss had a specific shape. A $658 million discretionary loss on investment securities shaved roughly 18 cents off EPS; excluding it, earnings were $5.75 — still short. Expenses rose 12% to $27.3 billion, outpacing revenue growth on volume-related compensation and wage inflation. Credit stayed calm: net charge-offs of $2.2 billion fell nearly $400 million from a year earlier, with only a $539 million reserve build.
What flipped the stock — from a 3.5% premarket drop to a small gain near $336 — was the outlook. JPMorgan raised its full-year 2026 NII forecast to about $106.2 billion and sketched a preliminary 2027 central case of roughly $107 billion excluding Markets, betting that the Fed’s September rate hike and balance-sheet growth keep the lending engine running. Jamie Dimon also made the capital hierarchy explicit: repurchases were cut sharply as the bank ranks organic growth ahead of returning cash. ROTCE held at a strong 20%.
Related reading: Market Close Oct 13: Banks Split on Earnings, Morning Briefing Oct 13: Chip Rout Deepens, Bank Earnings, CPI Ahead
What to watch: JPMorgan is betting that higher-for-longer rates keep NII growing into 2027. Do you think the Fed’s September hike is the start of a new tightening cycle, or a one-off insurance cut? Share your view below.
Sources:
https://sourcefirstnews.com/jpmorgan-q3-2026-earnings-miss-buybacks-cut
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
Not financial advice.
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