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DOGE - This topic has 0 replies, 1 voice, and was last updated 2 weeks, 6 days ago by
👑 Lv.100 Master.
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US jobless claims just sank to their lowest level since mid-July, in a labor market that refuses to crack. The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 197,000 for the week ended September 19 — near levels last seen in 1969, per Reuters and AP reporting. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 201,000. The four-week moving average fell to 202,250, while continuing claims — a proxy for hiring — edged up 2,000 to 1.719 million in the week ended September 12, the reference week the government uses for the September jobs report due October 2. The unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in August and is expected to hold steady.
Why it matters: layoffs remain remarkably rare. As FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey put it, firms are “simply not laying very many people off.” But the details are more mixed: continuing claims creeping higher suggests hiring is modest rather than strong, with headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to the US-Iran war and import tariffs. Job growth has averaged only around 166,000 a month across 2023–24 — a resilient but no longer hot labor market, and one that complicates the Fed’s job with Treasury yields already at 19-year highs.
What to watch: the September jobs report lands October 2, and the reference-week data already in hand makes continuing claims the number to watch into that print. If hiring stays soft while layoffs stay low, the Fed faces a delicate call — strong enough to keep rates high, soft enough to worry about. Also watch energy prices: any further escalation around Hormuz could feed through to business costs and hiring plans.
Related reading: 10-Year Treasury yield hits 5.17%, a 19-year high, as Fed hike odds surge — https://bullounge.com/forums/topic/%e2%9a%a1-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-5-17-a-19-year-high-as-fed-hike-odds-surge/
Sources:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-decrease-labor-market-regains-footing-2026-09-24/
https://www.kcau9.com/news/business/ap-claims-for-unemployment-benefits-drop-to-197000-the-lowest-since-mid-july-as-layoffs-remain-rare/
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
Not financial advice.With layoffs this low, is the labor market genuinely strong — or is weak hiring the real story?
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