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What happened
Baird analyst Tristan Gerra raised his price target on Micron Technology (MU) to $1,520 from $1,280 on Monday, keeping an Outperform rating. The new target implies about 40% upside from Friday’s closing price near $1,082.
Gerra gave three reasons for the upgrade, as reported by CNBC: first, demand for agentic AI has surged recently, boosting demand for server CPUs — a trend Baird expects to continue into next year. Second, industrywide DRAM supply growth should slow next year versus 2026, keeping the memory market tight and supporting pricing. Third, Micron should benefit from higher high-bandwidth memory (HBM) margins in 2027. Gerra said Baird is “incrementally positive” on the company over the near and medium term.
Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, September 30. Wall Street expects revenue of about $51.4 billion — roughly 351% growth from $11.32 billion a year ago — with adjusted EPS near $31.73 versus $3.03 last year. The company’s HBM3E and HBM4 output is reportedly sold out through 2027.
Baird isn’t alone: JPMorgan reiterated an Overweight rating with a $1,540 price objective, and the MarketBeat consensus target sits at $1,348.
Key figures:
- New Baird price target: $1,520 (~40% implied upside)
- Q4 revenue consensus: $51.4 billion (+351% year over year)
- HBM supply: sold out through 2027
- Options market is pricing an ~8% post-earnings move
Ironically, Micron shares slipped about 2% in premarket trading Monday to roughly $1,056, caught in a broader chip selloff on rising Treasury yields and OpenAI’s pause on training its newest models.
Why it matters
Micron is the purest read on AI memory demand, and Baird’s note frames the next leg of the thesis: it’s not just AI training, but agentic AI workloads and slowing supply growth that could extend the memory supercycle into 2027. Wednesday’s report is a bellwether for the whole memory complex — Sandisk, SK Hynix, and Seagate all move on Micron’s pricing commentary.
What to watch
Wednesday’s earnings call (3:30 p.m. CT) for DRAM and NAND pricing commentary, HBM4 ramp updates, and gross margin guidance. Any hint of supply discipline versus aggressive capex will set the tone for memory stocks into 2027.
Related reading: Micron Earnings on September 30: Wall Street Expects 350% Revenue Jump as Memory Supercycle Runs Hot
Sources: Stocktwits, American Banking News, MoneyCheck
With Micron’s HBM sold out through 2027, is the memory supercycle just getting started — or are expectations ahead of Wednesday’s report already too high?
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
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