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Bitcoin is on track to close its best September on record, up 7.33% for the month and narrowly ahead of September 2024’s 7.29% — if tonight’s close holds.
What happened
- Per Coinglass data, this would be the fourth straight green September — the month’s longest winning streak — after six consecutive red ones from 2017 to 2022. Even after this run, September’s long-run average return remains a negative 2.34%, the worst month of the calendar.
- BTC traded around $83,600 into the September 30 close, with CryptoQuant’s Bull Score at 90 even as spot demand shrank by roughly 170,000 BTC over 30 days and speculative futures demand fell 90% in two weeks.
- A $202 billion Treasury coupon settlement lands September 30, a known month-end liquidity wildcard for risk assets.
Why it matters
A record September would cement the idea that the “Red September” curse is dead — but the internals are mixed. Price strength on shrinking spot demand and collapsing speculative futures interest is the profile of a rally running on fumes rather than fresh conviction. For investors, the record is a fun milestone; the demand data is the thing to watch.
What to watch
Tonight’s close decides the record. Then the data stack: Wednesday’s PCE report at 8:30am ET, Friday’s payrolls, and the October FOMC meeting — where markets price roughly 50% odds of another rate hike. Historically strong October seasonality meets a Fed that is still hiking.
Related reading: Strategy Buys 1,665 More Bitcoin for $142.7M as Holdings Near 850K BTC | BitMine Tops 6 Million ETH, Holding Nearly 5% of All Ether
Sources: Crypto News, CoinDesk
Does a record September set up October for a real breakout — or is this a bull trap with spot demand quietly shrinking?
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk. Not financial advice.
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