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Bitcoin has rallied 44% this quarter to nearly $85,000 — its best quarter since Q4 2024 — and while some holders are now taking profits, the pace of selling is far below what prior market tops produced, per Bitfinex on-chain data cited in CoinDesk’s Daybook US.
What happened: About $2.4 billion in profits has been realized recently, measured by coins moving on-chain above their last transfer price. But at prior market tops, Bitfinex notes daily realized profits ran $7 billion to $10 billion. Demand is absorbing the supply: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $2.84 billion over six days and are up roughly $800 million for the year, erasing a $5.8 billion deficit from earlier in 2026. Ether looks strong too — roughly 410,000 ETH left exchanges over the past month while U.S. spot ether ETFs drew $680 million across four sessions. And bitcoin, ether and other majors showed no weakness after the $452 million Bitget hack. Meanwhile, rallies in the Dollar Index and Treasury yields have stalled — a relief for risk assets — though oil volatility stays high on Iran war headlines.
Why it matters: Muted profit-taking at the top of a 44% quarterly run signals holder conviction — the supply overhang that usually caps rallies isn’t materializing yet. With ETF inflows outpacing realized profits, fresh institutional demand is soaking up the distribution, which is structurally bullish. Ether’s exchange outflows and ETF bid suggest the risk bid is broadening. And resilience after the Bitget hack, alongside stalling dollar and yields, says macro is no longer an outright headwind.
What to watch: The key tell is whether daily realized profits start climbing toward that $7 billion–$10 billion prior-top zone — acceleration there would be an early blow-off warning. Watch the bitcoin and ether ETF inflow streaks for signs of demand fatigue, and the Dollar Index and Treasury yields: if those rallies resume, risk assets lose a tailwind. Iran war headlines and oil volatility remain a wildcard, as does any follow-up from the Bitget hack.
Related reading: more coverage in the Market News forum, and our earlier post on the Bitget hack.
Question for the room: With realized profits running at only a fraction of prior market tops, do you think holders are waiting for higher prices before distributing — and is that conviction or complacency?
Source: CoinDesk Daybook (Bitfinex data), Sept 25, 2026
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
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