BTC 
ETH 
XRP
SOL 
DOGE - This topic is empty.
-
Posts
-
What happened
The global bond selloff intensified on Monday, pushing sovereign yields to levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.234% — its highest since mid-2007 — while the 30-year yield touched 5.542%, a level unseen since 2004, according to Tradeweb data cited by the Wall Street Journal. The damage spread far beyond the U.S.: Germany’s 10-year Bund hit 3.649%, its highest since mid-2009, and the average yield on a global bond gauge climbed above 4% for the first time since 2007. U.S. stock futures slid in tandem, with Nasdaq 100 futures down about 0.6% and S&P 500 and Dow futures off 0.4–0.5%.
Key figures:
– 10-year Treasury yield: 5.234% (+5.3 bps Monday), highest since June 2007
– 30-year Treasury yield: 5.542% (+3.1 bps), highest since 2004
– 2-year Treasury yield: ~4.92%, near multi-year highs
– Fed October rate-hike odds: above 70%, up from 57% a week ago and 18% a month ago (CME FedWatch)
– Brent crude: $106.85 (+2.4%); gold futures: −3.1% to $4,189Why it matters
This is no longer just a U.S. story. Tickmill strategist Patrick Munnelly summed it up: “Higher oil, sticky inflation expectations, resilient activity and heavy sovereign financing needs are combining to push global discount rates higher.” The chain reaction is familiar but brutal — oil is driving rates, and rates are driving every asset class, as Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar put it in a client note. Higher long-term yields push up mortgage rates, auto loans and credit-card borrowing for consumers, while equity investors rotate out of growth stocks whose valuations look worst when discount rates climb. Even Nvidia’s announcement of a $150 billion buyback increase — which lifted its shares 1.6% premarket — failed to calm the broader market. Gold’s 3% drop to a seven-week low is telling: normally a geopolitical bid would lift it, but right now the prospect of further Fed tightening is overpowering safe-haven demand.
What to watch
A data-packed week will decide whether the selloff extends. The Conference Board consumer confidence report arrives tomorrow, the August PCE inflation report lands Wednesday, and the September jobs report drops Friday — with consensus at roughly 100,000 new payrolls and 4.1% unemployment. Any hot reading would cement an October hike, which markets now see as the base case. Bond traders also face heavy sovereign supply from Europe’s four largest issuers this week, which could keep a lid on any rally. Watch the 10-year’s June 2007 peak of 5.29% — a break above it would mark the highest yield since April 2002.
Sources:
– Wall Street Journal: Selloff in U.S., European Government Bonds Deepens
– Wall Street Journal: Treasury Selloff Extends, Stock Futures Slide to Kick Off Jobs Week
– Investopedia: 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens on MondayRelated reading: Gold Crashes 3% to 7-Week Low as Fed October Hike Odds Hit 70%, Mortgage Rates Top 7% After Fed Hike and Bond Selloff
With the 10-year flirting with 5.3% and an October Fed hike now the market’s base case, are you reducing risk or treating the selloff as a buying opportunity?
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
Not financial advice.Log in to vote
