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JOLTS Report Lands Tuesday: Job Openings Test October Fed Hike Bets

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    What happened

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET. Economists expect about 7.23 million job openings, a touch below July’s 7.27 million.

    Key facts:
    – July’s report showed a 4.4% job-openings rate, with hires and total separations near 5.1 million, quits at 3.1 million, and layoffs at 1.7 million.
    – June’s openings were revised down by 177,000 to 7.2 million — revisions have repeatedly told a softer story than the headline.
    – The release kicks off a crowded data week: August PCE inflation lands Wednesday and the September jobs report follows Friday.
    – Markets now price better than a 70% chance of another Fed rate increase in October.

    Why it matters

    The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more increase this year. JOLTS answers a different question than payrolls: not how many jobs were added, but how much unmet demand for workers remains. A soft print — especially a drop in openings alongside steady quits — would cool October-hike expectations and relieve pressure on bonds and gold. A hot print does the opposite, right before CPI and payrolls.

    What to watch

    Watch the openings number first, then the quits rate — it’s the cleanest read on worker confidence. Wednesday’s PCE and Friday’s payrolls will decide the October hike either way, so treat today’s report as the opening bid.

    Related reading: Jobs Report Tops Next Week’s Market Calendar With October Fed Hike in Play and Citi: October Fed Hike Hinges on Core CPI, Not Jobs

    Sources:
    – BLS JOLTS schedule: http://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/jolts.htm
    – JOLTS preview: https://www.mexc.com/crypto-pulse/article/us-august-jolts-preview-160331

    Not financial advice.
    Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.

    Does today’s JOLTS print change your odds on an October hike — or is it all about Wednesday’s PCE and Friday’s payrolls?

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