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JPMorgan just cut its third-quarter delivery estimate for Tesla ahead of the official numbers, citing weakness in the EV maker’s two largest markets.
What happened
JPMorgan trimmed its Q3 delivery forecast to 482,000 vehicles from 516,000 – a 6.5% cut – while lowering its price target to $415 from $445 and keeping a Neutral rating, according to a note reported Monday by TheFly. The brokerage said July and August data showed mixed sales trends across Tesla’s major markets. August registrations dipped nearly 13% in China and about 4% in the United States. Tesla shares edged 0.5% lower in premarket trading.
– 482,000 – JPMorgan’s new Q3 delivery estimate (down from 516,000)
– $415 – new price target (down from $445), Neutral rating maintained
– -13% – Tesla’s August new-vehicle registrations in China
– -4% – August registrations in the United States
– Follows Goldman’s Sept 16 cut to 435,000, well below the ~456,000 Visible Alpha consensusWhy it matters
Q3 is Tesla’s last full quarter before the $7,500 US EV tax credit expired at the end of September, so this print doubles as a stress test for underlying demand without the federal incentive. Two major Wall Street banks now sit below consensus, which means expectations have already been reset – a number near 482K would read as in line with the Street rather than a shock, while anything near consensus would be a genuine beat. Either way, the trajectory into Q4 matters more than the quarter itself.
What to watch
Tesla typically reports Q3 deliveries later this week. Watch the regional breakdown – China and US strength or weakness will set the tone for the October 22 earnings call – plus any commentary on the Model Y L ramp and Cybercab certification, which faces an NHTSA response deadline of September 30.
Related reading: Tesla Begins Semi Truck Deliveries, Roadster Reveal Set for October 1
Sources:
https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/tesla-faces-q3-delivery-test-jp-morgan-cuts-forecast-flags-weakness-in-two-key-markets/cZMSHXrRBQm
https://finance.biggo.com/news/abd3aaa7-76f6-498a-ac8a-8bfbc06c7a9aDo you think Tesla’s Q3 deliveries beat the cut-down Wall Street estimates? Share your prediction below.
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
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