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Nike (NKE) is the most divided stock on Wall Street right now, and Thursday’s fiscal first-quarter earnings report will settle the argument. Jefferies analyst Randal J. Konik reiterated a Buy rating with a $75 price target — implying the stock could more than double from Friday’s close of $35.75, while Bank of America just cut the shares to Underperform with a $30 target implying 17% downside.
What happened
The split played out within 48 hours. BofA analyst Lorraine Hutchinson cut Nike from Neutral to Underperform on Friday, slashing her target from $47 to $30 and arguing the sales turnaround won’t arrive until fiscal 2028. She trimmed fiscal 2027 and 2028 EPS estimates by 11% and 12%, warned that North American wholesale sell-through is lagging shipments, and noted Greater China sales fell 17%. Nike also hit a 52-week low of $35.22 on Friday and was removed from the S&P 100 on Sept. 21 after falling roughly 44% this year.
Konik’s note, covered by Barron’s this weekend, sees the opposite. He expects Thursday’s report to show stabilizing North America and wholesale demand, forecasting 48 cents of EPS and $11.5 billion in sales — both above consensus. But his bigger call is the mid-November investor day: new CFO David Denton can reset fiscal 2027 and 2028 guidance that management can actually beat. “A new CFO owns none of the prior guidance,” Konik wrote.
Why it matters
- Both camps agree the classic lifestyle franchise is weak and China is the drag — the disagreement is purely about timing.
- BofA models negative sales growth through fiscal 2027; Jefferies says product and wholesale are turning.
- Consensus sits at Hold with an average target near $48, so both extreme calls are betting against the crowd.
What to watch
Thursday’s Oct. 1 report: North America sell-through versus sell-in, Greater China sales, and gross margin. Then the November investor day — if Denton guides conservatively and beats it, Konik’s double becomes the template.
Related reading: Citi’s $1,300 Micron call ahead of Wednesday’s earnings — another big analyst bet going into a pivotal print this week.
Is Nike a turnaround buy at these levels or a value trap? Share your take in the comments.
Sources: Barron’s, TheStreet, GuruFocus
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
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