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Axios reports that OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue is nearing $70 billion, up more than 70% since the start of Q3 — and Oracle investors read that as a vote of confidence in Oracle’s AI compute backlog, sending the stock about 4% higher on Tuesday.
What happened
According to Axios, citing unnamed sources, OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate is approaching $70 billion. Enterprise/B2B revenue has more than doubled since July, and third-quarter consumer revenue already topped all of 2025. OpenAI declined to comment, and the $70B figure is an extrapolation — not audited revenue. Oracle traded as high as $143.67 intraday versus a $132.60 prior close, and was trading near $138 on the day (WSJ stocks-to-watch: +3.91%).
Why it matters
- Roughly $300 billion of Oracle’s $664 billion in remaining performance obligations is tied to OpenAI, per Citizens’ Patrick Walravens via MarketWatch
- D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria estimates OpenAI represents about half of Oracle’s compute backlog
- Bernstein’s Mark Moerdler called the $70B figure “serious enough to decrease concerns about client exposure”
- Luria: OpenAI’s accelerating growth is “a very good sign for Oracle” that reinforces OpenAI’s ability to live up to its expectations for compute capacity
The rally matters because Oracle had slid toward $130 in September on concerns about its heavy AI data-center spending and execution risk, so Tuesday’s bounce restores some of that lost ground.
What to watch
The same day brought a counterpoint: the Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI is scrapping the release plan for its next-generation AI model over safety concerns. OpenAI’s DevDay keynote was expected around 1 p.m. ET Tuesday in San Francisco, with updates on enterprise coding agents a possible highlight. On the macro side, Wednesday’s PCE inflation report arrives with October Fed hike odds around 50%, and possible OpenAI/Anthropic IPO filings could reshape the AI trade. Separately, Oracle issued a force-majeure notice on its Project Jupiter AI data-center project, keeping execution and financing questions on the table.
Related reading: Oracle force-majeure on Project Jupiter data center
Sources: MarketWatch | Investor’s Business Daily | Morningstar | WSJ stocks to watch
With OpenAI driving an estimated half of Oracle’s compute backlog, is Oracle the best public proxy for OpenAI’s growth — or does the Project Jupiter overhang make that exposure too lumpy to own right now? Drop your take in the comments.
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
Not financial advice.
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