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Russia’s war in Ukraine is about to get harsher: Vladimir Putin privately told U.S. officials he intends to escalate attacks on Ukraine in retaliation for Kyiv’s drone campaign against Russian oil refineries, the New York Post reported Friday.
What happened: “Putin is now going to hit Zelensky hard, and he’s told us he’s going to,” a U.S. official told the Post. The Russian leader conveyed that “now it’s our turn, and we’re going at them.” This follows Ukraine’s largest-ever drone attack this week — Russian officials called it the “most massive” yet on Moscow — which hit the capital’s main oil refinery. Ukraine’s campaign has struck nearly all of Russia’s major refineries this year, damaging 27 of the 32 largest and causing an estimated $20 billion in damage, contributing to a near-doubling in global diesel prices. Trump has urged Kyiv to halt energy-infrastructure strikes, but Zelensky told the UN General Assembly that “Ukrainians understand that this winter could be very harsh for us. But in response, we will have no choice but to make it painful for Russia too.”
Why it matters: Energy infrastructure is becoming the war’s defining front. Russia previously degraded Ukraine’s electrical grid, and Ukrainian energy minister Denys Shmyhal says Moscow plans to knock out Kyiv’s energy systems this winter. A retaliation spiral means civilian infrastructure, power grids, and fuel logistics on both sides — plus continued pressure on diesel and heating fuel prices heading into winter. It also makes the limited grain-and-energy ceasefire that Secretary of State Marco Rubio says both sides discussed look much harder to reach.
What to watch: Whether the promised escalation targets Ukraine’s power grid as temperatures drop; the U.S.-proposed trilateral technical meeting (with the UAE floated as venue); and the timeline for Ukraine’s domestic Patriot missile production to blunt incoming strikes.
Related reading: Market News forum
Sources: New York Post · Reuters
Will energy-infrastructure strikes become the defining phase of this war this winter?
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