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What happened
President Donald Trump told Axios on Sunday that he expects more talks with Iran this week — one day after publicly rejecting Tehran’s seven-day ceasefire proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal, transmitted to Washington through Qatari mediators during the UN General Assembly, offered to reopen the waterway within seven days and pause regional fighting, including in Lebanon, in exchange for lifting the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen funds, and waiving sanctions on Iranian oil sales.
Trump called the deal “unacceptable,” telling reporters Saturday: “They want to make a deal to open the Hormuz Strait immediately because they’re losing so badly.” Key facts:
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Sunday Tehran stands firm on its conditions and is still waiting for mediators to convey Washington’s definitive position
- U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz told CNN the deal was rejected because Iran was negotiating in bad faith, asking for “everything up front”
- Shipping through Hormuz has collapsed: Reuters reported only 17 commodity vessels crossed over one recent weekend, versus a pre-war average of about 125 per day
- The Wall Street Journal reported Trump privately expects a renewed bombing campaign after the November midterm elections
Why it matters
The reject-then-talk-again pattern keeps both the bullish and bearish oil tails in play. Roughly a fifth of the world’s gas and oil flows through Hormuz, so a credible path to reopening would knock a large war premium out of crude, while escalation would add it back. Brent whipsawed between roughly $97 and $108 this month, and Monday’s open will show which narrative traders believe.
What to watch
Watch for the Qatari mediators to relay the formal U.S. position, any written White House statement (so far only Trump’s public remarks exist), and fresh Gulf shipping data. The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for October 4.
Related reading: Trump Rejects Iran’s 7-Day Ceasefire, Sees Post-Midterm Airstrikes Likely | Iran FM Warns of Doomsday War on NBC; Trump Eyes Post-Midterm Strikes: Report
Is Trump’s rejection a negotiating tactic to extract better terms, or a real step toward post-midterm escalation?
Sources: CNN, Reuters, The Times
Not financial advice. Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.Log in to vote
