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What happened
President Donald Trump signaled a potential opening in the U.S.-Iran standoff on Monday, with CNN reporting that the president is open to sanctions relief for Iran if there is real progress on the nuclear front. The headline landed midday, after markets had spent the morning under pressure: Brent crude had surged as high as $101.24 a barrel (+3.9%) on fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption.
Key figures:
- S&P 500 bounced to 7,704, down 0.5%, after an intraday low of 7,667
- Nasdaq composite recovered to 26,923, down 0.6%, after touching 26,710
- Brent crude pulled back sharply to $97.52, up just 0.1%, from the day’s highs
Why it matters
This is the first genuine softening in Trump’s tone since he rejected Iran’s Hormuz reopening proposal on Saturday. For markets, the signal matters more than the substance: every sustained move in crude feeds directly into inflation expectations and the Fed’s rate-hike math, with odds of an October hike already running above 70%. Energy traders read the headline as a real chance that Strait of Hormuz flows could normalize sooner than feared.
What to watch
Whether the sanctions-relief talk turns into resumed negotiations this week — Trump told Axios he expects talks to continue. Any reversal in tone would send oil right back toward $107. Also watch Wednesday’s PCE inflation report and Friday’s September jobs report, both of which feed the October Fed decision.
Would you buy the dip in stocks on this headline, or wait for a signed deal first?
Related reading: Iran Talks in Doubt as Araqchi Prepares to Leave New York
Sources: MarketWatch live coverage
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
Not financial advice.
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