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Fed funds futures now price roughly 70% odds of a 25-basis-point October rate hike — but UBS says markets are overpricing the move, arguing its base case is a single December hike followed by a pause.
What Happened
The repricing has been swift: GFMReview puts October-hike odds at 69.7%, up from just 8.8% a month ago, while TipRanks reported 73.1% immediately after the S&P Global flash PMI.
UBS disagrees. Its base case is one hike in December and then a hold, with the Fed’s dot-plot median rate staying at 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027. The bank also sees the core PCE inflation forecast falling roughly 0.2 percentage points after a BEA data revision.
The hot repricing was driven by September’s S&P Global flash composite PMI of 58.4 — the strongest private-sector expansion since July 2021 — with input-cost inflation the highest since October 2022. Brent rebounding above $100 adds fuel and transport costs, and Fed Governor Michael Barr said “further policy adjustments are likely to be needed” to reach the 2% target. The October FOMC meeting is October 27–28.
Related reading: Jobs Report Tops Next Week’s Market Calendar With October Fed Hike in Play and Mortgage Rates Top 7% After Fed Hike and Bond Selloff.
Why It Matters
The split between futures pricing and the UBS base case is the key tension for stocks, bonds, and crypto heading into a data-heavy week. A “December-and-done” path would be far gentler on rate-sensitive assets than back-to-back hikes.
What to Watch
- September CPI, due September 30, and payrolls later this week — either could reset the October odds.
- The October 27–28 FOMC meeting and any guidance that validates or undercuts the market’s pricing.
- Whether Treasury yields keep climbing — a yield breakout is what puts risk assets and the euro/dollar at risk.
Are you siding with UBS that markets are overpricing the October hike — or will this week’s CPI and payrolls numbers force the skeptics to fold?
Sources: CryptoCompass; GFMReview.
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
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