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The Dow rose. The Nasdaq fell. Oil did the talking. Monday’s session split along a single fault line: memory chips cratered on Chinese competition fears, while value stocks and energy carried the Dow to a 0.4% gain.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 7,807.24 — on the fourth anniversary of this bull market. Bond markets were closed for Columbus Day, so liquidity was thin and there were no yields to hide behind.
Market Close
Index Close Change S&P 500 7,807.24 -0.06% Dow Jones 51,850.55 +0.38% Nasdaq Composite 27,246 -0.44% Russell 2000 ~2,794 -0.45% Four years ago today, the S&P 500 bottomed. It has gained more than 120% since October 12, 2022.
Yields, Dollar & Commodities
Asset Level Move 10-year Treasury 5.24% Bond market closed WTI crude $93.28 +1.5% Brent crude $106.09 +1.3% Gold ~$4,168/oz -0.6% Dollar index 102.577 +0.3% Bitcoin ~$84,000 Steady Oil was the macro story. WTI jumped 1.5% to $93.28 and Brent topped $106 after Saudi Arabia intercepted more Houthi missiles and drones following the weekend’s deadly Riyadh airport attacks. Trump’s “energy ceasefire” was already wobbling — Zelenskyy said Russia violated it within a day.
The Memory-Chip Rout
China’s Changxin Memory (CXMT) reported progress on storage-capacity expansion technology, and memory stocks got crushed on fears of a supply glut:
- SanDisk (SNDK): -6%+
- Micron (MU): -3.1% to $996.80
- Marvell (MRVL): -3.4%
- Lumentum (LITE): -10%, erasing last week’s gains
The AI hardware trade is facing a valuation reckoning. After months of multiple expansion, any hint of Chinese competition or demand softness is getting punished instantly.
The Other Side: Software and Value
Salesforce climbed on a Bank of America double upgrade and its Loops AI-analytics acquisition. Figs surged more than 12% — now up 30% in five days. Meta rose after unveiling its new “Muse Wonder” AI model.
Financials gained ahead of tomorrow’s bank earnings. Communication services and consumer defensive stocks led all sectors — classic rotation into safety when tech wobbles.
IonQ dropped after announcing a $1.3 billion all-stock deal for cybersecurity firm Elisity. The strategic logic is fine; shareholders hate the dilution.
What the Tape Says
- Rotation, not exodus. Money isn’t leaving equities — it’s moving from chips into value, energy, and defensive sectors.
- Oil above $93 is an inflation tax landing two days before Wednesday’s CPI. That’s the week’s real risk.
- The trade deficit blew out to $105.6B in August, the largest since March 2025. The market shrugged — capital-goods imports tied to AI buildout suggest capacity investment, not weakness.
- Thin holiday tape. With bonds closed, today’s moves deserve a discount — liquidity returns tomorrow.
What’s Next
- Tuesday, Oct 13 (pre-market): JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth
- Wednesday: September CPI — the week’s main event
- Thursday: September PPI
- Oct 27–28: FOMC meeting (December hike odds near 85%)
Sources
- Investopedia — Markets News, Oct. 12, 2026: investopedia.com
- Motley Fool — Stock Market Today, Oct. 12: fool.com
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
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