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Monday close · October 5, 2026

AI Beats Bonds. Again.

The 10-year Treasury hit 5.31% — its highest since April 2002 — and stocks rose anyway. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,477.31 as Nvidia’s $238.90 record and a $22.6B Schneider-PTC deal kept the AI trade roaring.

The close in one lineStocks and yields climbed together — the AI trade doesn’t care about 5.3%.

S&P 500

7,773.95+0.66%

Nasdaq 100

31,076.44+0.87%

Dow Jones

51,267.90+0.18%

Russell 2000

2,847.14+0.50%

Close figures: WSJ, market dataData snapshot · Oct 5, 2026

01 / TAPE

Records on both sides of the trade

The S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,773.95 — less than 1% from its all-time high — the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.05% to a record 27,477.31, the Dow added 0.18% to 51,267.90, and the Russell 2000 climbed 0.50% to 2,847.14. Every S&P 500 sector rose except real estate.

Nvidia was the engine: up 2.1% to a record $238.90, worth more than $5.7 trillion. PTC was the S&P 500’s top gainer, surging about 35% after Schneider Electric agreed to buy it for $22.6B in cash. TSMC added 2.8% on the Terafab talks; Intel fell 2.6%.

The bond rout didn’t blink. The 10-year closed at 5.31% — the highest since April 2002 — and the 30-year at 5.664%, its highest close since May 2002. The ISM services prices index hit 74.0, the hottest since July 2022, backing the case for a December hike.

01 · AI

Nvidia’s $238.90 record carried the Nasdaq

Market cap over $5.7T. The AI earnings outlook is doing the heavy lifting while yields scream.

02 · M&A

Schneider’s $22.6B PTC bid lit up software

PTC +35% was the S&P 500’s best performer; the $205/share cash offer is a 42.3% premium.

03 · INFLATION

Services prices hit 74.0 — hottest since 2022

ISM services held at 54.9 (27th straight month of expansion), but input costs are reaccelerating.

02 / CHARTS

The day in two views

Major indices

One-day percentage change

Source: WSJ, market data

The Nasdaq Composite (+1.05% to 27,477.31) set a record; the S&P 500 sits under 1% from its high.

Standout movers

One-day percentage change

Source: market data, company announcements

PTC surged ~35% — the S&P 500’s top gainer on Schneider’s $22.6B bid (off-chart); Intel fell 2.6% on the TSMC-Terafab news.

03 / MACRO

The bond rout marches on

Treasury yields

Closing yield, percent

Source: WSJ, market data

The 10-year’s 5.31% close is the highest since April 2002; the 30-year’s 5.664% is the highest close since May 2002.

WTI crude

Down 1.8% as G7 reserve releases and recovering flows weighed.

$89.43

Gold

Steady near $4,168 as real yields climbed.

$4,167.6

Dollar index

Near an 18-month high as the euro sank to a 17-month low.

102.12

Why stocks keep ignoring 5.3%

Bond yields and equity prices usually move in opposite directions — but not right now. Sky-high AI earnings expectations are overpowering borrowing-cost fears, and the ISM services report showed demand still expanding. The real test comes with Q3 earnings: if profits deliver, 5.3% is just a number.

Source: WSJ

04 / VOICES

What the pros are saying

Bonds are continuing their trend, and so are stocks. If you think the benefits of AI are essentially infinite, so what if you have to pay more to borrow money?

Steve SosnickInteractive Brokers — via WSJ

Global oil inventories have been depleted by the Middle East conflict and could take as long as two years to rebuild, even after flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize.

Amin NasserAramco CEO — via WSJ

The Nasdaq was powered to records by the outlook for blistering AI earnings growth — even as rising bond yields emerged as a threat to the outlook.

J.D. JoyceJoyce Wealth Management — via WSJ

05 / NEXT

On deck tomorrow

Economic data

Trade balance (Aug)Tuesday, Oct 6 · 8:30 AM ET

ADP employmentTuesday, Oct 6

FOMC minutesWednesday, Oct 7 · 2:00 PM ET

September CPIWednesday, Oct 14 · high importance

Events

Fed speakersTuesday: Williams, Bowman, Schmid

3-year Treasury auctionTuesday, Oct 6

OpenAI DevDay 2026Tuesday, Oct 6

Brazil runoff watchFlavio Bolsonaro leads after round one

Earnings

Lamb Weston (LW)Before open Tuesday

Constellation Brands (STZ)After close Tuesday

Q3 season kickoffBanks report next week

Sources & links

• The Wall Street Journal — market close (S&P 500 +0.66% to 7,773.95; Nasdaq record 27,477.31; 10Y 5.31% highest since April 2002; Nvidia record $238.90; strategist quotes)
• Reuters — ISM services PMI (54.9; prices paid 74.0, highest since July 2022); Trading Day (Brazil +8%, euro 17-month low, dollar 18-month high)
• S&P Global — services PMI 58.8 (vs 58.7 expected); composite 58.4
• The Information (via AI Stock Wire) — Meta and Microsoft cutting internal Claude use
• Market data — index closes, Treasury yields, commodities

Reading the figures. All index levels, yields, and economic readings reflect the October 5, 2026 U.S. market close. Times shown in MST (America/Phoenix).

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

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