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Saturday brought no trading, but no pause in the news. Missiles struck Iran’s Qeshm Island again while diplomats worked the phones, Elon Musk put a $25 billion quarter on the table for SpaceX, and the final two Senate races moved further toward the Democrats. Here is what changed since this morning.

Related reading: this morning’s roundup on the Iran strikes, the Kyiv barrage and oil’s worst week since COVID.

1. Qeshm Island hit again as Iran claims a second U.S. drone downed

Two missiles struck Qeshm Island on Saturday, according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency, cited by Reuters and AFP. State news agency IRNA said two projectiles hit the Suza area after witnesses heard aircraft overhead. It was the second day in a row of reported strikes on the island, following the limited U.S. action President Donald Trump confirmed on Friday evening.

Iran’s army said on Saturday morning that its air defenses destroyed an American MQ-9 drone over the island, the second U.S. drone Tehran claims to have brought down in two days after the Revolutionary Guard said it intercepted an MQ-1 on Friday. Washington has not confirmed either claim, and U.S. Central Command described the situation as relatively calm.

The pressure on shipping continued. Iran’s naval force said a tanker with its transponder switched off caught fire in the eastern Strait of Hormuz on Saturday after hitting a mine. The Revolutionary Guard said limits on its missile range had been lifted, following an order from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei for an unrestrained response to any future threat. Diplomacy kept moving in parallel: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he spoke with 12 foreign ministers in the past 48 hours, and Qatar denied reports that the mediation had failed.

• Two missiles hit Qeshm Island on Saturday; Iran claims an MQ-9 drone downed
• A tanker caught fire after hitting a mine in the eastern Strait of Hormuz
• Iran’s missile-range limits lifted; Araghchi spoke with 12 foreign ministers in 48 hours

2. Musk says SpaceX will out-earn NASA’s entire budget this quarter

Elon Musk told investors on Friday that SpaceX’s fourth-quarter revenue should rise roughly 70 percent from the third quarter, putting sales near $24.8 billion. He made the forecast virtually at the 33rd Annual Baron Investment Conference in New York, then posted on X that SpaceX’s revenue this quarter alone “will be substantially higher than NASA’s entire annual budget.”

The comparison holds on one measure. NASA received $24.4 billion in regular fiscal 2026 appropriations, according to a Congressional Budget Office assessment. The agency also received $10 billion through the 2025 reconciliation law, and Musk did not specify which funding measure he meant. The forecast builds on a third quarter in which SpaceX reported $14.58 billion in revenue, up 161 percent from a year earlier.

The bigger story is who pays. Musk said U.S. government contracts will account for less than 10 percent of revenue this quarter, down from 16.6 percent in the third quarter and roughly 20 percent in 2025. Anthropic is now SpaceX’s largest single customer at 34.5 percent of third-quarter revenue, or roughly $5 billion, though Bloomberg reported the AI company could exit its computing agreement as early as next year after a notice period. Musk repeated his goal of a $100 billion annualized revenue rate in December, and said it could exceed $500 billion by December 2027, while cautioning that the figures are his best guess, not a promise. SpaceX shares closed Friday at $134.20, up 8.6 percent.

• Q4 revenue forecast near $24.8 billion, up about 70 percent from $14.58 billion in Q3
• Government share of revenue below 10 percent this quarter, from 16.6 percent in Q3
• Anthropic is the largest customer at 34.5 percent of Q3 revenue; StarMind launches in Q3 2027

3. Scottish Mortgage exits Tesla as merger odds drift

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, the London-listed fund that backed Tesla in 2013 and SpaceX in 2018, has sold its entire Tesla stake and cut its SpaceX holding. The Tesla sale came in April, CNBC reported. SpaceX accounted for 11.1 percent of the fund’s assets on November 4, down from 15 percent on September 30, with the managers saying they sold shares as lock-ups allowed because the position had grown too large.

The exit is a reminder of how the merger question now hangs over both stocks. The companies’ October filings show a deal would need approval from their special committees, SpaceX’s board and its controlling shareholder, and Musk has said it would need a majority of all outstanding Tesla shares, about 1.98 billion of 3.95 billion. Kalshi now prices a merger before 2028 at 74 percent, but the odds of an announcement by December 31 have fallen to 9.5 percent. No merger proposal is on the ballot for Tesla’s December 3 annual meeting.

• Scottish Mortgage sold all of its Tesla shares in April; SpaceX cut to 11.1 percent of assets
• Merger odds before 2028 at 74 percent, but only 9.5 percent for an announcement by year-end

4. Abu Dhabi delegations named as Trump says a Ukraine deal is within reach

Russia named its delegation for the U.S.-led talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11, and it is a heavyweight one. Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky will lead again, joined by Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, GRU military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov, and senior General Staff officer Yuri Zhigarlovsky. All of them attended a Security Council meeting hosted by President Vladimir Putin on November 6 to prepare.

Ukraine’s team will be led by Rustem Umerov, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, while the United States is expected to be represented by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. President Donald Trump predicted a breakthrough after meeting Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, saying a deal is within reach. The mood on the ground is darker: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Friday night that Ukrainian intelligence has identified preparations for another wave of Russian strikes on energy facilities, bridges and civilian infrastructure.

• Russia’s delegation led by Medinsky, including GRU chief Kostyukov; Umerov leads Ukraine’s team
• Talks open November 10-11, the first trilateral round since February

5. Mississippi lead widens as Democrats send lawyers to the last two Senate races

Democrat Scott Colom’s lead over Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi widened to 2,696 votes, 468,339 to 465,643, with more than 95 percent counted, according to Decision Desk HQ’s update early Saturday. The margin stood at roughly 1,100 votes on Wednesday. About 3,600 mail ballots can still arrive by November 10 if postmarked by Election Day, and an unknown number of affidavit ballots remain to be processed. Certified results are due November 13. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has deployed lawyers and resources from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to Mississippi.

In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 637 first-choice votes, 102,962 to 102,325, with about 70 percent counted. Ranked-choice tabulation there begins November 18. The overall picture is unchanged: Democrats hold 54 Senate seats to 44 for Republicans, and 254 House seats to 161, with 20 House races still uncalled. But the two remaining Senate seats will decide whether the Democratic majority ends at 54 or 56.

• Colom leads Hyde-Smith by 2,696 votes, up from about 1,100 on Wednesday
• Peltola leads Sullivan by 637 votes in Alaska; ranked-choice count starts November 18

6. Weekend markets: bitcoin flat, gold’s best week since August

Bitcoin traded near $75,900 on Saturday, little changed on the day after touching $74,762 on Friday, its lowest since August 21. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 25, in extreme fear. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now lost about $1.28 billion in November, including $411.9 million on Friday, with Wednesday the only session this month to close with positive flows.

Gold ended Friday at about $4,045 an ounce, down 1 percent on the day but up roughly 5 percent for the week, its best week since August. The October jobs report, 165,000 payrolls against about 65,000 expected, lifted December Fed hike odds to roughly 77 to 80 percent and pushed the dollar and yields higher. Oil was flat on Saturday, with Brent at $98.32 and WTI at $90.83, after Brent’s 16 percent weekly drop.

• Bitcoin near $75,900; ETF outflows of $1.28 billion so far in November
• Gold about $4,045, up roughly 5 percent on the week; December hike odds near 80 percent

What to watch

Tuesday is the week’s hinge. October CPI lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, the last inflation report before the Fed’s December 8-9 meeting, and a hot reading could push hike odds above 85 percent. The same day, the Abu Dhabi talks open. Nvidia reports on November 17, the next big test for the AI trade, and the CLARITY Act’s odds of passing before January 1 sit near 6 percent after the Democratic sweep.

With missiles still flying over Qeshm and the Strait, and CPI landing on Tuesday, what is the bigger risk to markets next week: another escalation in the Gulf, or a hot inflation print that locks in a December hike?

Sources

• 234Radio — Qeshm island and Hormuz hit, as mediators try to prevent US-Iran escalation
• Aurax News — Iranian media report two missiles struck Qeshm Island
• Middle East Eye via Hathalyoum — Trump claims ‘minor strikes’ on Iran’s Qeshm Island, but says talks ongoing
• Newsy Today — Two missiles hit Qeshm Island as Trump calls attack small
• PakTechStan — Musk says SpaceX will out-earn NASA’s entire budget this quarter
• MarketSpeaker — SpaceX stock rises on Musk’s revenue forecast and NASA claim
• TipRanks — Why SpaceX stock jumped 8% today, November 6, 2026
• AI Stock Wire — Scottish Mortgage exits Tesla, cuts SpaceX
• AI Stock Wire — Tesla SpaceX merger: what a deal needs, and who votes
• Kalshi View — When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? Kalshi odds
• AnewZ — Russian missiles hit Kyiv ahead of Abu Dhabi peace talks
• Hit and Hot News — Russia strengthens delegation for US-led Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi
• EL7 — Russia to send military and diplomatic delegation to Abu Dhabi for talks with US
• Votendi — 2026 US midterm election results live: House & Senate
• FatElephant — Chuck Schumer’s lawyers are in Mississippi, but Thune’s?
• Bitcoinist — Bitcoin steadies above $76,000, but Wall Street isn’t buying the dip yet
• FinanceFeeds — Gold price today: $4,045 Saturday after 165,000 jobs lifted December hike odds
• FinanceFeeds — Brent crude oil price: $98.32 Saturday as US-Iran deal bets and Tuesday’s CPI frame the week
• CoinDesk — Democratic sweep of Congress could be final blow to Clarity Act after $170.5M crypto push

Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.

Not financial advice.

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