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Friday morning brought the market two things it badly needed — a strong jobs report and a bid under beaten-down chip stocks — and one thing it did not: clarity on Iran. The October payrolls blowout pushed December rate-hike odds back toward 80%, yet Nasdaq futures still bounced.

Related reading: yesterday afternoon’s roundup on the Nasdaq correction, the chip rout and the oil rebound.

1. Jobs blowout: 165,000 payrolls crush forecasts, December hike odds jump

The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, nearly triple the roughly 65,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. September’s gain was revised up to 60,000 from 29,000 and August’s to 186,000 from 133,000.

Hiring was broad-based: professional services added 70,000 jobs, healthcare 42,000, transportation and warehousing 25,000, and manufacturing 19,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% over the year, both above forecasts. Traders raised the odds of a quarter-point December hike to roughly 77% to 79% on CME FedWatch, from about 67% to 70% before the release, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6.4 basis points to 4.894%.

• Nonfarm payrolls: +165,000 vs. about 65,000 expected
• Unemployment rate: 4.1%, down from 4.2%
• December hike odds: about 77% to 79%, up from roughly 70% pre-release

2. Nasdaq futures bounce after Thursday’s rout, but Asia keeps falling

Nasdaq-100 futures rose 1.48% to about 27,113 in early Friday trading, with S&P 500 futures up 0.39% near 7,404. Dow futures pointed lower, down about 0.66%, in a split showing the rebound is concentrated in the hardest-hit names.

Chip stocks led the premarket recovery: Nvidia gained 3.6% after its steepest one-day drop since January 2025, while AMD, Intel, Broadcom and Micron rose 5% to 8.3%. Asia offered no comfort: Japan’s Nikkei fell 7% to an intraday low of 56,745.81, and South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled 8.7% to an intraday low of 4,911.28.

• Nasdaq-100 futures: +1.48%; S&P 500 futures: +0.39%; Dow futures: about -0.66%
• Thursday: S&P 500 -4.36% to 7,353.73; Nasdaq -5.52%, in correction; Nasdaq 100 -6.36%, worst since March 2020

3. Democrats’ AI crackdown takes shape: governors want data-center pauses

The policy picture behind Thursday’s selloff is getting clearer — and harder for tech investors to dismiss. Newly elected Democratic governors in Texas, Ohio, Georgia and Michigan all campaigned on pausing data-center construction. Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa wants an immediate pause and an end to data-center tax breaks.

In Congress, Rep. Yassamin Ansari has called for a pause on advanced AI development and a ban on artificial superintelligence. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has made protecting consumers from higher electricity costs tied to data-center expansion a top priority.

The stakes are large: Goldman Sachs estimates about 45% of planned U.S. data-center capacity sits in states weighing tougher rules. Big Tech plans about $730 billion in AI infrastructure spending for 2026. The limits matter: no governor can ban data centers alone, any federal ban faces a presidential veto, and Goldman says the election is unlikely to change the federal outlook much without bipartisan support.

• Planned U.S. data-center capacity in states weighing tougher rules: about 45%, per Goldman Sachs
• Big Tech AI infrastructure spending planned for 2026: about $730 billion

4. Trump: decision on Iran strikes coming “soon”; Tehran sends a seven-condition proposal

President Donald Trump said Thursday he will soon decide whether to order another round of major strikes on Iran, after meeting his top national security advisers. “I would rather not destroy the rest of the country, if possible, but maybe I’ll have to,” he said, adding that U.S. forces are “very much locked and loaded.”

The administration is weighing three paths: renewed large-scale strikes, continued economic pressure, or a negotiated settlement. Iran has meanwhile sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, according to a senior Iranian official cited by Reuters, setting seven conditions for talks — including sanctions relief and an end to the blockade.

Top Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran will neither reopen the Strait of Hormuz nor negotiate until the conditions are met; Washington has rejected several and insists Iran’s nuclear program be permanently dismantled. Eurasia Group puts renewed U.S. strikes at 60%, down from 65%, while Rapidan Energy’s Bob McNally sees an 80% chance fighting resumes.

• Trump on renewed strikes: decision coming “soon”; U.S. forces “very much locked and loaded”
• Eurasia Group strike odds: 60%, down from 65%; Rapidan: 80% chance fighting resumes

5. Oil back near $100, but still heading for a 12% weekly loss

Brent crude rose 1.67% to $99.90 a barrel early Friday, briefly crossing $100, while WTI gained 1.43% to $91.69. It was the second straight day of gains, driven by fresh attacks on tankers in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran reported three more tanker attacks on Thursday, and the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency has recorded at least five vessel incidents in the Gulf since Sunday. Oil shipments through the strait are running below 60% of capacity. The weekly picture is still ugly: both benchmarks are on course for losses of about 12% this week, as hopes for a diplomatic end to the Iran war outweigh the tanker risk. JPMorgan estimates supply exceeded demand by 1.4 million barrels a day in October.

• Brent: $99.90, up 1.67%; WTI: $91.69, up 1.43%
• Weekly change: about -12% for both benchmarks

6. Moderna swings to a profit and raises its outlook — but shares slip anyway

Moderna reported third-quarter revenue of $1.31 billion, up 29% from a year ago and well above the roughly $890 million analysts expected. The biotech earned $162 million, or $0.38 per share, against a $200 million loss a year earlier; Wall Street had expected a loss of about $1.10 per share.

The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15% to 25%, from up to 10% previously. It also lifted its year-end cash forecast to $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion, from $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion. The market’s verdict was muted: shares were quoted near $240.22 in premarket trading, about 0.5% below Thursday’s close, after falling 6.55% in the rout.

• Q3 revenue: $1.31 billion vs. about $890 million expected
• EPS: $0.38 vs. an expected loss of about $1.10; net income $162 million vs. a $200 million loss
• 2026 revenue growth outlook: 15% to 25%, raised from up to 10%

What to watch

Next week brings the October consumer inflation report on Tuesday, the data point the Fed will weigh most before its December 8-9 meeting, followed by producer prices. With hike odds already near 80%, a hot CPI reading would leave little room for a pause. Bitcoin traded near $75,500 after the jobs report, below its 200-day average near $76,540 for the first time since August; gold held near $4,050.

The death toll from Monday’s Russian strike on an aid distribution point in Komyshuvakha has risen to 50, according to Ukrainian officials, with Le Monde reporting 53. U.S., Russian and Ukrainian negotiators meet in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 for the first trilateral talks since February, after reconstruction talks in Brussels that U.S. envoy Jared Kushner called “productive and substantive.”

Which matters more for stocks next week — the hot jobs data pushing the Fed toward a December hike, or the chance of a U.S.-Iran deal pulling oil and inflation fears down? Share your view in the comments.

Sources:

• CoinDesk — U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, blowing past 65,000 estimate
• USA Today — U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, above expectations
• Reuters via SRN News — US job growth beats expectations in October; unemployment rate falls to 4.1%
• BeInCrypto — US jobs smash forecasts, sending gold and Bitcoin lower
• Bitcoin Magazine — Bitcoin price sits at $75,500 after hot October jobs report
• Morningstar / Dow Jones — Nasdaq futures rally after Asian AI rout as investors brace for jobs day
• Superpower Daily — Nasdaq futures rebound as chip stocks recover from nearly $3 trillion market rout
• The Retest — Nasdaq futures bounce 1.4% after the worst day since April 2025
• CryptoCompass — Could Democrats burst the AI bubble? New governors push data center pauses
• The Outpost — Democrats push AI regulation after midterm sweep
• XenoSpectrum — Democrats sweep Congress in midterms, raising data center curbs risk
• Political.org — Trump says decision on renewed strikes against Iran coming “soon” as Qatar pushes deal
• Times Now World — Iran submits nuclear proposal to U.S. amid escalating rhetoric from Donald Trump
• OilPrice.com — Oil prices head for 12% weekly loss despite fresh tanker attacks
• TalkMarkets — Oil prices today: Brent nears $100 despite 12% weekly slump
• FinanceFeeds — Brent crude oil price: $99.90 as Hormuz attacks return
• MoneyCheck — Moderna stock slips after Q3 profit beat and higher 2026 revenue outlook
• ad-hoc-news — Moderna stock: profit returns as 2026 outlook rises
• FinanceFeeds — Gold price today: $4,044 Friday as the October jobs report lands
• EuropeSays — Russia and Ukraine exchange airstrikes as U.S. envoy describes renewed security talks as productive
• Security Signal — Death toll from Russian strike on aid distribution point rises to 50

Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.

Not financial advice.

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