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November 9, 2026 at 3:06 pm #3399
Wall Street bought the dip with conviction on Monday, erasing most of last week’s rout in a single session, while oil slid to three-month lows on hopes that a Qatari-brokered deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Nvidia was the glaring exception, falling more than 4% on its board’s probe into chief executive Jensen Huang, and Anthropic’s looming IPO roadshow gave the AI trade a fresh catalyst.
Related reading: This morning’s roundup on the Nvidia probe, the oil slide and bitcoin’s two-month low and Yesterday afternoon’s roundup on the Nvidia probe and the Hormuz tanker fires.
1. Stocks roar back: Dow jumps 1,104 points as dip buyers return
The Dow Jones Industrial Average leaped 1,104.02 points, or 2.15%, to 52,389.75 on Monday. The S&P 500 jumped 2.35% to 7,549.94 and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.74% to 25,253.14, according to the Associated Press.
The rally recovered most of last week’s damage in one day: the S&P had fallen 2.68%, its worst since early April, and the Nasdaq had dropped 3.37% into correction territory. Advancers outnumbered decliners by more than three to one on both exchanges, and the Russell 2000 outperformed with a 3.15% gain.
Fear evaporated almost as fast as it arrived. The VIX collapsed nearly 20% to about 20.5 after closing Friday at 25.64. Chipmakers led the rebound — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reclaimed 10,000 — and Tesla and SpaceX each rose more than 5%. Sentiment got a lift from an IFR report that Anthropic plans to launch its Nasdaq IPO roadshow on Tuesday morning, a vote of confidence from the deal market after a week of doubts about the AI buildout.
- Dow: +1,104.02 points (+2.15%) to 52,389.75
- S&P 500: +2.35% to 7,549.94; Nasdaq: +2.74% to 25,253.14
- VIX: ~20.5, down nearly 20% from Friday’s 25.64
2. Oil slides to three-month lows as Iran deal reports circulate
Brent crude settled at $92.57 a barrel, down $5.75 or 5.85%, after touching a session low of $90.56. West Texas Intermediate fell $3.98, or 4.38%, to settle at $86.85, after dipping to $85.02 — a level not seen since August, according to DTN.
The trigger was diplomacy. President Donald Trump met Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, at the White House on Monday. Israeli media reported, citing two diplomatic sources, that Iran has approved Qatari-brokered terms for an interim deal: Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt attacks on Gulf tankers, while Washington would end its naval and economic blockade and release $8 billion in Iranian funds frozen in Qatar. Neither government has confirmed those terms.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran’s offer to reopen Hormuz within two days still stands, provided the war ends on every front. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Monday that Tehran was prepared to negotiate “with dignity”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, said on Sunday that a breakthrough was not imminent and called Tehran’s conditions unrealistic. The market is pricing the deal, not the confirmation — and maritime insurance for Hormuz transits remains elevated at 6% to 10% of hull value, so any fresh incident would put the risk premium straight back on.
- Brent: $92.57 (-5.85%); WTI: $86.85 (-4.38%)
- Reported deal terms: $8 billion in frozen Iranian funds released
- Hormuz insurance: 6% to 10% of hull value
3. Nvidia falls 4.27% as the board probe hangs over earnings week
Nvidia fell 4.27% to $178.67 on Monday, the only major chip stock in the red on a day the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reclaimed 10,000. The shares had slid about 5% in premarket trading, a move Reuters estimated put roughly $250 billion of market value at risk.
The board announced on Sunday that independent directors, assisted by outside legal counsel, will examine reports that chief executive Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. The board said it had no reason to believe national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised, and Huang remains chief executive and has pledged to cooperate fully.
New details emerged on Monday. Nvidia has made no filing on the matter with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the board has published no timetable. Three House committee chairmen have asked Huang to join a closed-door briefing on November 18, and asked him to accept or offer other dates by November 11. AMD and Broadcom moved higher instead — the market’s verdict so far is that the AI hardware story is intact, but its most important stock now carries a governance overhang eight days before its November 17 earnings report.
- Nvidia: -4.27% to $178.67, from Friday’s $186.64 close
- House briefing: November 18; Huang to respond by November 11
- Nvidia earnings: November 17
4. Anthropic roadshow starts Tuesday in a $75 billion-plus test of the AI trade
Anthropic plans to launch its Nasdaq IPO roadshow on Tuesday morning, according to an IFR report cited across the market on Monday, with pricing and listing expected next week. The offering is expected to raise between $75 billion and $100 billion.
The company filed its S-1 on October 26 and amended it on November 2 to add third-quarter results. It plans to list Class A shares on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading a syndicate of 22 banks. Reports put the valuation range at roughly $1.1 trillion to $1.75 trillion, with a first trade pencilled in for November 19 or 20.
The timing is a stress test for the whole AI funding cycle. Last Thursday’s 6.4% plunge in the Nasdaq 100 had raised questions about whether the roadshow would be delayed. Going ahead anyway — at a valuation that would make Anthropic one of the largest listings in history — signals that institutional demand for AI exposure has not cracked. Amazon is the quiet winner either way: it has invested $18 billion in Anthropic since 2023, and its balance sheet carried those holdings at about $239 billion on September 30.
- IPO size: $75 billion to $100 billion expected
- Valuation range: $1.1 trillion to $1.75 trillion
- Amazon’s Anthropic stake: carried at ~$239 billion on September 30
5. Earnings trio: KKR and Occidental beat, Take-Two misses but guides up
KKR reported third-quarter earnings per share of $1.78, beating the $1.58 consensus by 20 cents, on revenue of $4.56 billion against a $2.66 billion estimate. Shares rose 1.67% to $98.09.
Occidental Petroleum posted adjusted earnings of $1.91 per share for the quarter ended September 30, beating Wall Street expectations of $1.46, according to data compiled by LSEG and reported by Reuters. Revenue of $6.56 billion missed estimates by about $330 million. Shares fell 1.1% to $55.76 on a day oil prices tumbled more than 4%.
Take-Two Interactive was the disappointment. The company reported a loss of $0.29 per share, missing the $0.97 consensus by $1.26, on revenue of $1.50 billion against estimates of $1.64 billion. Shares fell 3.48% to $207.40. But Take-Two’s guidance stole the story: it set third-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings guidance of $3.80 to $4.00 per share, far above the $2.08 consensus, with Grand Theft Auto VI launching on November 19. Investors are being asked to look past one soft quarter to the biggest release in gaming history.
- KKR EPS: $1.78 vs $1.58 expected
- Occidental adjusted EPS: $1.91 vs $1.46 expected
- Take-Two Q3 FY27 guidance: $3.80-$4.00 vs $2.08 consensus
6. Bitcoin stays under $75,000 as Strategy slips below its cost basis
Bitcoin traded around $75,016 late Monday, up about 1% on the day but still below the psychologically important $75,000 level for most of the session. The day’s low was $73,750, near the two-month low touched overnight.
The more telling number belongs to Strategy. The company bought 1,036 bitcoin for $81.9 million at an average of $79,012 between November 2 and 8, and now holds 850,364 bitcoin at an average cost of $75,456. With bitcoin trading below that level, the world’s largest corporate holder is underwater on its entire position.
Institutional flows are not helping. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion in the week ended November 6, the heaviest outflow since late June, pushing cumulative 2026 flows into negative territory at roughly minus $914 million. Ether ETFs lost $365 million last week, a sixth straight week of outflows. Crypto earnings arrive after the close from MARA, BitGo, Exodus and Trump Media, with CoreWeave reporting on Tuesday.
- Bitcoin: ~$75,016; Strategy average cost: $75,456
- Bitcoin ETF outflows last week: $1.28 billion
- 2026 ETF flows: ~-$914 million year to date
7. Abu Dhabi peace talks set for Tuesday as Russia hits Ukraine’s grid
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff announced on Monday that delegations from Ukraine and Russia will meet in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, the first trilateral talks since February. The agenda covers post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian measures and ending the war. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he hopes the talks will open the way to a three-way meeting of leaders including President Vladimir Putin.
The backdrop is grim. Russian forces bombed an aid centre in the village of Komyshuvakha in the Zaporizhzhia region, killing at least 31 people, according to Ukrainian officials cited by Al Jazeera. Zelenskyy said the Russians could not have been unaware that residents gathered there weekly to collect humanitarian packages.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power system in the Dnipropetrovsk region left emergency crews working on Monday to restore electricity to some 600,000 people. Even the guest list is disputed: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU will participate, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted the talks would involve only Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. delegations. President Trump, in a CBS interview broadcast on Sunday, suggested Kyiv may have to cede territory in any U.S.-brokered deal — a position Ukraine has repeatedly rejected as a permanent settlement.
- Abu Dhabi talks: November 10-11, first trilateral round since February
- Komyshuvakha aid centre toll: at least 31 killed
- Dnipropetrovsk power outages: ~600,000 people affected
What to watch
Tuesday brings the week’s main event: October CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, with consensus at +0.3% headline and +0.2% core month over month, and no year-over-year figure because October 2025 data was never collected. CoreWeave reports after the close. Gold held above $4,100 on Monday, up more than 1.5% to around $4,130, even as CME FedWatch showed December hike odds rising to 84% after Friday’s hot jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.89%.
With the Anthropic roadshow starting Tuesday and CPI landing the same morning, which matters more for this market right now — the AI funding cycle or the inflation print? Share your view in the comments.
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
Not financial advice.
Sources:
- Associated Press via TV News Check — Dow jumps 1,104; Nasdaq climbs 674; S&P 500 adds 173
- TradingKey — Nasdaq extends gains by 2.7%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reclaims 10,000
- Barchart — Stock indexes sharply higher as tech stocks rally and crude oil falls
- DTN — WTI tests $85 as U.S.-Iran de-escalation seen
- OilPrice.com — Oil sinks to $94 as Iran’s $8 billion Hormuz deal heads to Trump
- Fox News — Trump meets key Iran war mediator as UAE reveals major oil export surge despite conflict
- The Business Standard — Trump to meet Iran war mediator Qatar, no imminent deal seen to end the war
- Invezz — Nvidia stock falls 4% after Jensen Huang probe
- The Edge — Nvidia board opens independent probe into reported intelligence effort targeting Huang
- Crypto Briefing — Anthropic targets Nasdaq debut on Nov. 19 or 20 with valuation up to $1.75 trillion
- KuCoin — Anthropic to launch Nasdaq IPO roadshow on Tuesday
- Motley Fool — Anthropic’s IPO could come within weeks. Amazon already owns a piece of it
- MarketBeat — KKR Q3 2026 earnings: $1.78 EPS beats $1.58 consensus
- Reuters — Occidental Petroleum beats quarterly profit estimates
- Seeking Alpha — Occidental Petroleum non-GAAP EPS of $1.91 beats by $0.44, revenue of $6.56B misses by $330M
- MarketBeat — Take-Two Interactive releases Q3 2027 earnings guidance
- CoinLab — Bitcoin today, Nov 9, 2026: daily brief and outlook
- ad-hoc-news — Bitcoin price stays below USD 75,000 after ETF outflows
- ByKaranteli — Crypto market brief, Nov 9, 2026
- Al Jazeera — Russian attack on Ukraine aid hub kills 31 as US announces new peace talks
- Al Jazeera — Ukraine’s Zelenskyy hopes Abu Dhabi talks will open path to Putin meeting
- AnewZ — Russia-Ukraine peace talks return to Abu Dhabi
- FXStreet — Gold defies Fed hike bets, tops $4,100 as oil rout hits the US
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