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October inflation came in hotter than expected on Tuesday morning, all but locking in a December rate hike — and putting a half-point move on the table. Anthropic launched its long-awaited IPO roadshow at a marked-down valuation, Nvidia’s board probe deepened with new reports of billions in chip shipments, and oil slid below $90 a barrel as the Iran war premium keeps draining out.
Related reading: Yesterday afternoon’s roundup on the Monday rally, the oil slide and Anthropic’s IPO plans and Yesterday morning’s roundup on the Nvidia probe, oil and bitcoin’s two-month low.
1. Hot CPI locks in a December hike — and Waller floats 50 basis points
The consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday, above the 0.3% economists expected. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the increase, food jumped 0.5%, energy rose 0.7% and gasoline gained 1.0%.
The report carried no year-over-year figure, because the October 2025 government shutdown stopped the BLS from collecting prices. Fed Governor Christopher Waller raised the stakes hours before the release, telling an audience in London that he leans toward a December hike even if inflation cooled — and that a hotter print could justify a 50-basis-point move. Traders now put the odds of a quarter-point December hike above 98%, according to CME FedWatch cited by the New York Post, with the target range moving to 4.00% to 4.25%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 0.8% after the print, the two-year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.62%, and gold slipped below $4,100 an ounce. Bitcoin dropped to about $73,400 in the minutes after the release.
- Headline CPI: +0.4% vs +0.3% expected; core CPI: +0.3% vs +0.2% expected
- December hike odds: above 98% for a quarter-point move, per CME FedWatch
- Bitcoin after the print: ~$73,400; gold: below $4,100
2. Anthropic launches its roadshow at a marked-down $1 trillion valuation
Anthropic launched its IPO roadshow on Tuesday, offering 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each in a sale that could raise up to $64.4 billion. The price range values the Claude maker at roughly $1 trillion on outstanding shares and up to $1.4 trillion on a fully diluted basis — a steep comedown from the $2 trillion valuations discussed in early October.
The company also plans to raise $26 billion through a separate private placement with seven strategic investors: Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD, TSMC, Broadcom and Micron. Annualized revenue reached about $81 billion as of October 31, according to the filing, while compute and infrastructure commitments total nearly $900 billion, stretching to 2045. Anthropic plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, with a first trade expected on November 19 or 20. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead a syndicate of 22 banks.
- IPO raise: up to $64.4 billion at $70-$78 a share
- Valuation: ~$1 trillion on outstanding shares, up to $1.4 trillion fully diluted
- Private placement: $26 billion from seven tech partners
3. Nvidia probe deepens: report ties Huang to $7.5 billion in chip shipments
The Information reported on Tuesday that Jensen Huang’s relationship with Alice Huang, the Chinese businesswoman U.S. officials allege worked for Beijing, helped enable at least $7.5 billion of Nvidia chip shipments, with ties dating back to 2023. Reuters said it could not independently verify the report, and Nvidia did not immediately respond. Bank of America removed Nvidia, Micron and Lam Research from its U.S. 1 List of top stock picks, and a proposed securities class action was filed on Monday in federal court in California.
President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that the FBI is examining the allegations and said he had spoken to Huang personally. Nvidia’s board opened an independent investigation on Sunday, saying it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised, and Huang has pledged to cooperate fully. Nvidia fell 4.27% on Monday to $178.67, erasing about $190 billion in market value, even as the Nasdaq rallied nearly 3%. House committee chairmen have asked Huang to attend a closed-door briefing on November 18, with a response due by November 11. Earnings arrive on November 17.
- Shipments tied to the relationship: at least $7.5 billion, per The Information
- Nvidia on Monday: -4.27% to $178.67, about $190 billion of value erased
- House briefing: November 18; earnings: November 17
4. Abu Dhabi talks open as Iran denies the $8 billion Hormuz deal
Trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States opened in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, the first three-way meeting since February. The delegations are led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for the U.S., Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky for Russia and Rustem Umerov for Ukraine. The agenda is post-war security guarantees, and U.S. proposals reported by the BBC include security consultations, crisis hotlines, reciprocal de-escalation measures and a possible revival of the NATO-Russia Council.
A senior U.S. official said on Monday that both sides are showing private flexibility on territorial arrangements, according to Reuters. G7 foreign ministers met in Paris on Monday to gauge how the U.S. midterm results change Washington’s approach to Ukraine and Iran. On Iran, Tehran denied reports that it had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for $8 billion in frozen assets. Fars news agency quoted a senior Iranian official calling the reports completely false, and said Iran still demands an end to the blockade and sanctions relief before any talks.
- Abu Dhabi talks: November 10-11, first trilateral round since February
- Iran’s denial: the $8 billion-for-Hormuz report is “completely false”
- G7 ministers met in Paris on November 9
5. Oil slides below $90 as the war premium drains out
Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since August 31, extending Monday’s 5.85% plunge. Brent was down 3.15% at $89.65 in early afternoon trading in London, while West Texas Intermediate fell 2.68% to $84.52.
The driver is de-escalation. President Trump said on Monday that new strikes on Iran are highly unlikely for now, after appeals from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait. The naval blockade stays in place, and Trump said U.S. forces remain “locked and loaded” if talks fail. Brent has now retreated about 22% from the six-month high of $118 it touched on October 30. OPEC crude production rose 1.38 million barrels a day in October to 22.87 million barrels a day, about 90% of its February level, according to a Reuters survey.
- Brent: $89.65 (-3.15%); WTI: $84.52 (-2.68%)
- Brent vs October 30 high: about -22% from $118
- OPEC October output: 22.87 million barrels a day
6. China’s trade surplus tops $1 trillion on the AI hardware boom
China’s goods trade surplus passed $1 trillion in the first ten months of 2026, customs data showed on Tuesday, reaching the milestone a month earlier than in 2025. The cumulative surplus hit $1.04 trillion, putting China on course to beat last year’s record $1.2 trillion. October exports jumped 35.2% from a year earlier to $412.3 billion, beating the 33.5% economists expected. Semiconductor exports soared 137.1% by value, and high-tech imports surged 72%, as the global scramble to build AI infrastructure kept Chinese factories humming.
Imports grew even faster, up 41.6% to $307.1 billion, so the monthly surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September. China’s surplus with the United States edged down to $32.71 billion — still a point of friction, with the U.S.-China trade truce due to expire in January.
- Year-to-date surplus: $1.04 trillion, a month faster than 2025
- October semiconductor exports: +137.1% year over year
- October exports: $412.3 billion (+35.2%)
7. Earnings: Trade Desk jumps 15% on a big beat; Hims cuts its outlook
The Trade Desk posted third-quarter revenue of $736 million, well above the $651 million analysts expected, with adjusted earnings of $0.33 a share against a $0.25 consensus. Shares closed up 15.47% at $14.93 on Monday, the stock’s biggest daily gain since March 5. The beat came with caveats: revenue was down 0.5% from a year earlier, about 3 percentage points of it came from a one-time deal with a strategic partner that will not recur, and the company announced a 15% workforce reduction expected to save more than $100 million in 2027. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of at least $755 million topped the roughly $685 million analysts had expected.
Hims & Hers went the other way. Third-quarter revenue of $890.4 million fell just short of estimates, and a loss of $0.14 a share missed the $0.06 profit consensus by 20 cents. The company cut its full-year revenue guide to $3.13 billion to $3.15 billion, below the $3.21 billion consensus, as gross margin contracted 1,700 basis points year over year on its push into branded weight-loss drugs and international markets.
- Trade Desk Q3 revenue: $736 million vs $651 million expected
- Trade Desk shares: +15.47% to $14.93
- Hims full-year guide cut to $3.13-$3.15 billion
What to watch
CoreWeave reports third-quarter results after the close, with analysts expecting revenue of about $3.54 billion and an adjusted loss of $1.21 a share — the key test of the debt-heavy AI cloud model after its bonds fell to yields above 16%. Producer prices land on Friday, Fed meeting minutes arrive on November 18, and Nvidia reports on November 17. Mississippi’s remaining mail ballots are due today, with certification set for November 13.
With the CPI print all but locking in a December hike and Anthropic pricing its IPO at a marked-down $1 trillion, which tells you more about where this market goes next — the Fed or the AI funding cycle? Share your view in the comments.
Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.
Not financial advice.
Sources:
- Reuters via SRN News — Hot October inflation report rattles markets
- CoinDesk — U.S. CPI rose stronger than expected 0.4% in October; core rate rose 0.3%
- New York Post — Inflation hotter than expected in October as energy, food prices surge
- Investopedia — 5 Things Investors Need to Know About Tuesday’s Markets
- SHRM — Inflation Continued to Rise in October, Squeezing Employees
- Bitcoin Magazine — Bitcoin Price Trades Near $73,900 After Hot CPI Print
- TipRanks — Stock Market Today, Nov. 10: Markets Await the Consumer Inflation Report
- The Trade Signal — Futures Mixed Ahead of Inflation Data
- TheWrap — Anthropic Targets $1.4 Trillion Valuation in IPO
- Reuters via SRN News — Anthropic IPO to raise as much as $64.4 billion, latest draft prospectus shows
- Reuters via SRN News — Anthropic’s $1.4 trillion IPO bid sets up high-stakes test for AI market
- Blockchain.News — Anthropic launches IPO roadshow, targets up to $64.4 billion valuation
- CosAnalyst — Jensen Huang Investigation: What It Means for NVDA Stock
- Blockchain Academics — Shareholder Suit Accuses Nvidia and Huang of Hiding Spy Ties
- Storyboard18 — Nvidia shares slide 4% as Jensen Huang faces espionage allegations; Trump confirms FBI probe
- Objective Daily News — The Talks Open in Abu Dhabi, Asia Extends the Rally, and China Passes a Trillion
- Stockbiz — Iran denies reports of talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for USD 8 billion
- U.S. News Pulse — G7 Ministers Meet in Paris as Trump’s Midterm Defeat Reshapes Ukraine and Iran Policy
- Always Finance — Brent Falls Below $90 as Trump Holds Off on New Iran Strikes
- Reuters via 985 The River — Oil falls as Trump downplays prospect of escalation with Iran
- Reuters — China’s trade surplus soars past $1 trillion, October exports jump 35.2% y/y
- QUE.com — China’s Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion With Two Months to Spare
- Silicon Report — Semiconductors and autos support China’s $1.04 trillion trade surplus
- Market Flux — Trade Desk, Rocket Lab and Onto Innovation Lead Strong Monday Earnings Wave as Hims and Lucid Disappoint
- CoinCentral — Trade Desk Stock Jumps 15% as Q3 Results Top Estimates and Q4 Outlook Beats
- Motley Fool — Trade Desk: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term Investors
- Stocktwits — From CoreWeave, Nebius Earnings To Adobe MAX: Big Tech Events Investors Should Watch This Week
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