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While everyone’s watching Bitcoin’s $87K drama, Ethereum quietly put up one of the strongest large-cap runs of the year: +75% in three months, from $1,510 to ~$2,650–2,750 — and just printed its first close above $2,750 since late January, a seven-month high.
The structure matters more than the percentage: ETH cleared its April highs and broke the prevailing downtrend while BTC still hasn’t reclaimed its May high. That’s genuine relative strength, and the ETH/BTC pair has visibly bounced off its lows — rotation capital is moving.
What’s fueling it (on-chain, not narrative):
– Binance ETH withdrawals hit a three-year high — ~90,000 monthly withdrawal transactions, double the start of the year. Coins leaving exchanges for cold storage is conviction, not day-trading.
– Spot ETF inflows flipped positive again after three straight sessions of withdrawals.
– Layer-2 activity (Base, Arbitrum, Optimism) picking up with TVL climbing alongside DeFi and RWA tokenization flows.
– Six consecutive green daily sessions pulled it out of a month-long chop — the longest such streak since before the summer stall.Levels (consolidated from current desk analysis):
– Resistance: $2,800 (0.382 Fib + psychological), $2,990 (0.786 Fib, near $3K), $3,397
– Support: $2,570–$2,600 (breakout shelf), $2,448, $2,224
– Rainbow-chart fair value sits around $2,551 with price in the “Accumulate” band — below long-term trend, not above it.Macro tailwind: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee notes crypto rallies typically lead the S&P 500 by about a month — he’s calling SPX above 8,000 into month-end partly on the back of crypto’s August strength.
The $3,000 question: a confirmed daily close above $2,800 opens the path to $2,990–$3,000. But note the setup — this rally started from deeply oversold conditions with bearish sentiment as fuel. The easy part of the move may be done; from here it’s about holding $2,600.
Is ETH finally leading again, or is this just beta catching up? Not financial advice.
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