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Super Micro Computer quietly repaired its chart after the August 11 earnings, and it’s now one of the cleaner AI-infrastructure setups: $41.44, above the 20-day ($38.54) and 50-day ($34.37), both rising.
The story in the chart: SMCI bottomed near $19.48, then earnings ($11.1B revenue, +93% YoY, $1.70 non-GAAP EPS beat, $60B+ in new orders, record backlog, FY2027 revenue guided to $65–72B) triggered the reversal. +30.8% in three months since. The 50-day has turned up decisively — the intermediate trend is now formally bullish.
Momentum: RSI 60 — bullish but not stretched. Volume running slightly above average (41M vs 38M), suggesting the move has sponsorship rather than being a short-covering spike.
What separates SMCI from concept AI stocks: $60B+ in new orders is contracted future revenue, not a slide deck. The bear case (margins, dilution, competition) is real but it’s now competing against printed numbers.
Levels: resistance $48–51 (June high $51.40); support $38.50 (20-day), then $34.40 (50-day). A high-volume break above $51.40 would confirm a new leg; losing $34.40 invalidates the repair.
The question for Q4: does the $65–72B FY2027 guide start looking conservative as orders convert? Watch quarterly order updates. Data as of Sept 24, 2026 close. Not financial advice.
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