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Friday’s weak jobs report gave stocks exactly what they wanted. The S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72 and the Nasdaq 100 added 1.00% to 30,807.93, as September payrolls of just 29K cooled October hike bets.
But the bond market isn’t celebrating: the 10-year still sits at 5.275%, and the debate has simply moved to December. This morning brings ISM Services PMI — the first test of whether the services economy is holding up.
Market Snapshot — Friday, October 2
S&P 500 · Fri close
7,722.72 ▲ +0.73%
Prev close 7,666.45Nasdaq 100 · Fri close
30,807.93 ▲ +1.00%
Prev close 30,501.56Dow Jones · Fri close
51,176.96 ▲ +0.49%
Prev close 50,926.56Russell 2000 · Fri close
2,832.89 ▲ +0.94%
Prev close 2,806.63All four benchmarks finished higher, with tech leading. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.19% to 27,190.86. Closes verified against Naver Pay Securities and market data.
S&P 500 Sectors
Industrials (+1.89%) led, followed by basic materials (+1.38%) and technology (+1.25%).
Healthcare (-0.02%) was the only losing sector. Source: Finviz.
Yields, Dollar & Commodities
2-YEAR TREASURY
4.827%
▲ from 4.791%10-YEAR TREASURY
5.275%
▲ from 5.243%DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)
101.923
▼ from 102.008GOLD
$4,172.1
▼ from $4,207.6WTI CRUDE
$89.22
▼ ~4% (Fri close)NATURAL GAS
$3.039
▲ from $2.950Yields kept climbing despite the soft jobs data: the 10-year rose to 5.275%. The dollar eased to 101.923 while gold slipped to $4,172.10.
WTI settled at $89.22 on Friday, down about 4%, as recovering Middle East flows offset war risk. This morning Brent is near $101 after Saudi Arabia’s surprise price cut.
Economic Data
Indicator Actual Expected Previous Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) +29K +90K +133K (rev.) Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% Durable Goods Orders (Aug) -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Baker Hughes Rig Count 598 — 599 Payrolls missed badly at 29K versus 90K expected, and the prior two months were revised down by 60K combined. The 12-month average pace is now just 45K — a clear sign the labor market has cooled.
Wages rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year; the participation rate ticked up to 61.8%.
Market Sentiment
CNN FEAR & GREED
38 — Fear
Updated Oct 5, 6:11 AM ET. Up from 31 at the previous close and 34 a week ago; 46 (Neutral) a month ago.VIX
15.31
Friday intraday (prev close 16.39). Open 16.15, high 16.24, low 15.30; 52-week range 13.38–35.30.Top Stories
1. Saudi Arabia slashes Asia oil prices to a six-year low. November Arab Light to Asia was set at $5/bbl below the Oman/Dubai average — down $3 and the widest discount since June 2020, against expectations of a $3 hike. Brent fell toward $101 as the cut offset Yemen escalation. (Reuters; Bloomberg)
2. Foxconn Q3 revenue jumps 47%, crushes estimates. Revenue hit T$3.03 trillion ($95.4B) versus T$2.83T expected, on AI server demand; September alone was a record T$1.16T. Full earnings land November 12. (Reuters)
3. Musk confirms Terafab talks with TSMC. “Just discussions, but something may come of it,” Musk posted on X. Intel fell 3.7% premarket while TSMC’s US shares rose 1.8%. (Barron’s)
4. Schneider Electric to buy PTC for $22.6B. The $205/share all-cash offer is a 42.3% premium; enterprise value $23.7B, closing expected in Q3 2027. Schneider shares dropped ~9% in Europe. (WSJ; Reuters)
5. Qualcomm licenses Huawei’s LogicFolding chip patents. The multiyear cross-license covers 5G, AI and co-packaged optics; Huawei expects total patent-licensing value above $6.9B. The deal faces FTC antitrust review. (Bloomberg)
6. OKX-ICE venture files with SEC for 24/7 tokenized stocks. OKXICE plans round-the-clock trading in 60+ US stocks under the SEC’s innovation exemption. Co-chair Andrew Cuomo called it “a landmark step toward a truly global, 24/7 Wall Street.” (Reuters)
7. Goldman: most S&P 500 firms will beat Q3 EPS. Consensus sees +27% year-on-year EPS growth, with AI infrastructure driving over half of profit growth and hyperscaler capex up 116%. (Goldman Sachs)
8. Citi: 2027 earnings can lift equities ~6% further. Strategists stay overweight the US, Japan and global IT on earnings momentum; financials were cut to neutral, real estate to underweight. (Citi)
9. Morgan Stanley: industrials look attractive after the pullback. Wilson’s team says upward estimate revisions will separate winners this earnings season; Q3 EPS is seen at +27% with revenue +10%. (Morgan Stanley)
10. JPMorgan: equity sentiment is now too bearish. Matejka’s team says bonds are near oversold and rate expectations have stopped rising; a rebound would likely be led by tech and cyclicals. (JPMorgan)
11. Spain’s Sanchez calls a snap election for November 29. The move follows parliament’s rejection of housing decrees amid mass protests; the euro fell to a 17-month low. (CNN)
12. Japan’s 30-year yield hits a record 4.235%. PM Takaichi pledged to “control” bond issuance in a policy speech, seeking to calm investors as debt costs climb. (Reuters)
13. Yemen offensive escalates; Houthis claim strikes on Aramco sites. The Saudi-backed government launched a full campaign to retake Houthi areas; the Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais. (Bloomberg)
14. SoftBank’s Son issues a rare AI safety warning. The longtime AI optimist called superintelligence in the wrong hands “super dangerous” and urged international cooperation — while reaffirming AI could drive 20% of world GDP by 2040. (event remarks)
Crypto Desk
BITCOIN
~$84K
steadyETHEREUM
~$2,700
firmedBTC SPOT ETF (LAST WEEK)
+$82.9M
net inflowETH SPOT ETF (LAST WEEK)
-$37.4M
net outflowBitcoin held near $84K and Ethereum near $2,700. The SEC approved 3x leveraged bitcoin and ether ETFs, and Hong Kong plans a crypto licensing bill this year. BTC spot ETFs drew $82.9M last week; ETH ETFs saw $37.4M in outflows. (CoinGecko; Farside)
Single-Stock News — Earnings Whispers
TSLA — Q3 deliveries 486,532 beat ~462K consensus. Shares rose 4.65% Friday; the company needs ~311K in Q4 for its first annual delivery gain since 2023.
RIVN — record Q3 deliveries 19,248 (+46% YoY). Production was 19,751; full-year guidance of 65K–70K was reaffirmed.
TWLO — joins the S&P 500 before today’s open. Replaces Warner Bros. Discovery, which is being acquired by Paramount Skydance for $81B.
MRNA — joins the Nasdaq 100 before Friday’s open. Also replaces Warner Bros. Discovery.
ON — Synaptics deal revised to $123/share all-cash. The $5.7B deal (down from $7B in stock) followed a rival bid; the FTC has cleared it.
STX — plunged 10.21% on Toshiba HDD expansion news. Western Digital also tumbled after hours.
SPCX — Musk to rename SpaceXAI as SpaceXSI. The change follows Trump’s “superintelligence” framing at the UN.
AMZN — $10B for data-center host communities. Amazon will invest $10B over five years where it builds data centers; it is also reportedly weighing moving $8B of Nvidia chips into an outside-investor vehicle.
CBRS — OpenAI partnership reaffirmed. Cerebras confirmed its partnership with OpenAI.
GOOGL — Poland opens antitrust probe. Polish regulators raised market-abuse concerns over Google’s treatment of publishers.
Earnings to watch: Q3 earnings season kicks off next week with the big banks. Full analysis in the Earnings forum. Source: Earnings Whispers.
Single-Stock Movers
1-day winners and losers in the S&P 500. Data as of Friday, October 2, 2026. Source: Finviz.
Top Winners 1-Day Top Losers 1-Day TSLA Tesla +4.65% STX Seagate -10.21% TXN Texas Instruments +4.44% SNDK SanDisk -3.79% DELL Dell Technologies +3.84% NOW ServiceNow -2.45% AVGO Broadcom +3.35% MU Micron -2.05% KLAC KLA +3.27% GILD Gilead Sciences -1.87% CSCO Cisco +3.16% NFLX Netflix -1.16% ORCL Oracle +3.06% AMGN Amgen -1.04% DE Deere +2.96% JNJ Johnson & Johnson -1.02% AMD Advanced Micro Devices +2.95% PLTR Palantir -0.68% CAT Caterpillar +2.31% LLY Eli Lilly -0.61% Tesla (+4.65%) led winners on the delivery beat, with chip-equipment names strong. Seagate (-10.21%) led losers on the Toshiba HDD news; healthcare was broadly soft.
Calendar
Monday, Oct 5 — S&P Global Services PMI (9:45 AM ET); ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET, consensus 55.7); factory orders; Twilio joins the S&P 500.
Tuesday, Oct 6 — OpenAI DevDay 2026.
Wednesday, Oct 7 — FOMC minutes (2:00 PM ET).
Thursday, Oct 8 — Initial jobless claims; wholesale inventories.
Friday, Oct 9 — Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary); Moderna joins the Nasdaq 100.
Wednesday, Oct 14 — September CPI. Q3 earnings season begins next week with the major banks.
Sources
Index closes, yields, commodities, sentiment: Naver Pay Securities, SKN Finance, TradingView and market data. Sector maps and single-stock movers: Finviz. Single-stock news and earnings calendar: Earnings Whispers. Crypto prices and flows: CoinGecko, Farside. Fear & Greed: CNN. Economic calendar: WSJ, Schwab Network. Data as of Monday morning, October 5, 2026 (ET) unless noted.
Not financial advice. This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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