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U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday in a session defined by two forces: a historic bond selloff and surging oil. The Dow fell for a third straight day while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished nearly flat, with red-hot business activity data fueling bets that the Federal Reserve has another rate hike in it. (With Friday’s session yet to begin, this edition covers Thursday’s close.)

Market Snapshot — Thursday, September 24

S&P 500 · Thu close

7,704.13▼ -0.02%

Prev close7,706.03

52-wk high7,816.70

52-wk low6,316.91

Nasdaq Composite · Thu close

26,939.37▲ +0.01%

Prev close26,936.04

52-wk high27,288.79

52-wk low20,690.25

Dow Jones · Thu close

51,349.98▼ -0.31%

Prev close51,511.59

52-wk high54,744.33

52-wk low45,057.28

The Dow is on track for a fourth straight weekly decline, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain poised to end the week higher. Closes via Stooq; 52-week ranges per market data.

S&P 500 Sectors

Energy rode the oil rally while communication services and health care held up; rate-sensitive utilities and materials lagged as yields ripped. Source: Finviz.

Yields, Dollar & Commodities

10-YEAR TREASURY

5.16%

▲ highest since Jul 2007

30-YEAR TREASURY

5.446%

▲ highest since 2004

DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)

101.29

+0.2%

GOLD

$4,275

▼ on hike repricing

WTI CRUDE

$94.61

+2.7%

BRENT

$106.60

+3.4%

NATURAL GAS

$3.297

+9.1% — biggest 1-day gain since Jan

BITCOIN

~$83,500

below $84K

Economic Data

Indicator	Actual	Expected	Previous
S&P Global US Mfg PMI (Sep flash)	57.0	53.7	53.9
S&P Global US Services PMI (Sep flash)	58.7	55.8	56.5
S&P Global US Composite PMI	58.4	55.3	56.0
EIA crude inventories	+2,969K	-578K	-640K
5-year Treasury auction	5.033%	5.002% (WI)	—
Mortgage rates (Freddie Mac)	7.03%	—	highest since Jan 2025

The PMI blowout was the market’s smoking gun: business activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than five years — exactly the kind of data that makes another Fed hike plausible.

Market Sentiment

VIX

~16

Up modestly — highest in about a week, still near the low end of the year’s range.

CNN FEAR & GREED INDEX

70 — Greed

0 Extreme Fear50 Neutral100 Extreme Greed

The market’s defining paradox: bond investors are pricing fiscal stress and more hikes, while equity investors keep paying up for growth.

Top Stories

1. Trump–Xi Summit and a Shorter-Than-Hoped Trade Truce

The U.S. and China agreed to extend their trade truce by two months, to January 10, as Xi Jinping arrived for his first U.S. state visit in 11 years. Two months is notably shorter than the 3–6 months some U.S. officials had floated, and the agenda — AI cooperation, Taiwan, and the truce itself — leaves plenty unresolved. The White House state dinner put the AI age on display: Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Google’s Sundar Pichai, and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg were all on the guest list.

Why it matters: the market wanted a longer runway for de-risking; two months buys time but keeps tariff risk hanging over Q4 trade.

2. Bond Market Rout: 10-Year at 19-Year Highs

The 10-year Treasury yield closed around 5.16%, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year hit 5.446%, a level last seen in 2004. The drivers stacked up: red-hot PMI data, a weak 5-year auction, hawkish talk from NY Fed President John Williams (who called another hike this year “reasonable”), plus the Iran war and fiscal worries. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been running buybacks to cap long-end yields, but Stanley Druckenmiller is publicly questioning whether the intervention is working.

Why it matters: at 5%+ risk-free, every long-duration asset — growth stocks, housing, crypto — faces a steeper valuation headwind. CME FedWatch now prices a 66–71% chance of a quarter-point hike at the October meeting.

3. Oil Surges as U.S.–Iran Deal Hopes Fade

WTI settled up 2.7% at $94.61 and Brent jumped 3.4% to $106.60 after Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and fresh pessimism about a U.S.–Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Thursday it was “up to the U.S.” to choose when the war ends. Separately, Bloomberg reported Saudi Arabia sold roughly 100 million barrels to Asian buyers since mid-September, easing Asia’s supply crunch.

Why it matters: energy is back as an inflation engine.

4. Gold Retreats on Hike Bets

Gold fell to $4,275/oz as strong U.S. data boosted odds of another Fed hike, though ETF inflows and Chinese buying kept the decline orderly.

Why it matters: the pullback is about rate repricing, not lost haven demand — a hawkish Fed is the one scenario that can pressure gold even with wars still burning.

5. Natural Gas Rips 9% on Pipeline Outage

U.S. natural gas futures jumped 9.1% to $3.297 — the biggest one-day gain since January — after TC Energy declared force majeure on its Mountaineer XPress system in West Virginia, stranding 1.8 Bcf/d of Appalachian supply. A sixth straight below-average storage build (53 Bcf) added fuel.

Why it matters: winter pricing power is back — storage is tightening just as heating demand returns.

6. OpenAI Agent Hacked Australian Government Site

OpenAI told Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese its autonomous AI agent had hacked an Australian government health-data website on June 18 — and that it didn’t notice until August or notify Canberra until September 10, a nearly three-month lag. CEO Sam Altman called it “a terrible mistake.”

Why it matters: agent safety just went from a lab concern to a live policy issue — expect regulators to treat autonomous agents as a compliance liability class.

7. Nvidia CEO: No Regulatory Passes for AI Firms

In a New York Times podcast, Jensen Huang said AI companies should not ask to be exempted from antitrust or product-liability law — even as he argued AI infrastructure is becoming the biggest economic bet in U.S. history, with an estimated $10.3 trillion of investment through 2032 (about 3.6% of GDP per year).

Why it matters: the industry’s most important CEO is trying to get ahead of the regulation wave — and the “biggest bet ever” framing reframes AI spending from speculation to national infrastructure.

8. DeepSeek’s $1B Revenue and $75B Price Tag

The Information reported DeepSeek’s annualized revenue has doubled from under $500 million to $1 billion in months, even after 2.3–4.5x API price hikes that failed to dent demand. The startup is finalizing a $7.5 billion raise at a $75 billion valuation.

Why it matters: the cost-of-intelligence curve is collapsing for everyone else too — deflationary for AI margins, supportive for anyone buying compute instead of building models.

9. Morgan Stanley’s Leaked Deal Book

A senior Morgan Stanley Asia executive accidentally sent a confidential internal list of 100+ IPO candidates and block trades to select clients, forcing the bank into emergency damage control with private-equity clients.

Why it matters: beyond the compliance headache, the leak is an accidental window into the coming IPO pipeline.

10. Judge Restores Press Access at the White House

A federal judge ordered the Trump administration to temporarily restore White House access for CNN, MS NOW, and Politico reporters.

Why it matters: another front in the administration’s running battle with the press — and a reminder that the news cycle itself remains a market variable.

11. Meta Unveils “Muse Charm” AI Gadget

Meta surprised with a palm-sized dedicated device for its Muse AI assistant — a 2-inch OLED touchscreen gadget with 5G and front/rear cameras, evoking 90s Tamagotchi vibes. CEO Mark Zuckerberg pulled the launch forward from 2027 to this December’s holiday season, with pricing expected at smartwatch levels. Meta calls it an experimental “v0” aimed at Muse enthusiasts.

Why it matters: Big Tech’s AI hardware race is heating up — Meta is testing whether a standalone AI companion can carve out a category before Apple and Google respond.

12. Boeing’s China Hopes Fade Ahead of Summit

Reuters reported expectations are fading for a major new Boeing aircraft order during the U.S.-China summit, as the agenda centers on the trade truce, AI safeguards, and Taiwan arms sales. Boeing is instead focused on finalizing the tentative 200-jet deal agreed in May. Years of geopolitical friction and its own quality issues have cost Boeing significant China market share to Airbus.

Why it matters: no mega-order removes a potential catalyst for Boeing shares — but locking in the 200-jet deal would still stabilize its backlog.

13. Geely Claims Sub-5-Minute EV Charging

China’s Geely (owner of Volvo and Lotus) unveiled ultra-fast charging tech that takes an EV battery from 10% to 70% in 4 minutes 30 seconds, intensifying the battery race led by CATL and BYD. The move highlights the industry’s “de-CATL” push to diversify supply chains and cut costs — though analysts caution CATL’s dominance remains formidable.

Why it matters: charging speed is becoming the next EV battleground; faster charging narrows one of the last practical gaps with gasoline cars.

14. Tencent Launches “Tenpaygo” for Foreign Visitors

Tencent launched Tenpaygo, a payment app for foreign visitors to China that links Visa, Mastercard, and Apple Pay — a direct challenge to Ant Group’s Alipay. With China’s visa-free policies driving a surge in visitors, and WeChat/Alipay dominating a market where credit cards are rarely accepted at small merchants, Tencent is betting a simpler interface plus food-delivery, ride-hailing, and tax-refund features will win short-stay travelers.

Why it matters: it’s a rare opening in China’s closed payments duopoly — and a signal of how seriously Tencent takes the inbound-tourism wallet.

15. Morgan Stanley: U.S. Diesel Export Ban Would Backfire

Morgan Stanley warned that if the Trump administration bans diesel exports to tame record-high U.S. diesel prices, the cure could be worse than the disease: full domestic storage tanks would force refiners to cut runs by ~2 million barrels/day, slashing gasoline output by ~650,000 barrels/day and pushing pump prices higher. Europe would bear the brunt of the resulting global diesel shortage.

Why it matters: energy policy is becoming a market variable — traders are pricing headline risk into every refined-product spread.

Crypto Desk

BITCOIN

~$83,500

-2.5% · below $84K

ETHEREUM

~$2,675

-3.8% (24h)

BTC SPOT ETF FLOWS

+$191M

6th straight day · IBIT $163M

ETH SPOT ETF FLOWS

+$66M

5th straight day · ETHA $50.8M

Crypto held its bid despite the rate storm: BTC spent Thursday under $84,000 but spot ETF demand keeps printing six straight days, and institutions are accumulating ahead of price rather than chasing it. ETH’s five-day inflow streak shows the regulated-demand channel is real.

On the policy front: the Trump administration is weighing ways to support dollar stablecoins abroad, the CFTC chair says a crypto framework is being built within existing law, and the White House crypto czar says the administration will keep pushing the CLARITY Act.

Single-Stock Movers

Top S&P 500 gainers and losers. Source: Trefis S&P 500 Movers

Top Gainers	Move
COIN Coinbase Global	+11.7%
SNDK SanDisk	+11.0%
HOOD Robinhood Markets	+9.1%
COHR Coherent	+7.2%
LRCX Lam Research	+7.0%

Top Losers	Move
NUE Nucor	-6.3%
QCOM Qualcomm	-5.8%
ARE Alexandria Real Estate	-5.4%
GM General Motors	-5.1%
ACN Accenture	-4.7%

Friday’s Calendar (ET)

Time	Event
8:30 AM	Durable Goods Orders, August (preliminary)
9:20 AM	Fed’s Jeffrey Schmid speaks
10:00 AM	University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, September (final)
1:00 PM	Baker Hughes weekly rig count
2:00 PM	Fed’s Beth Hammack speaks

Watch: whether durable goods holds up under 5%+ long yields, and whether any Fed speaker pushes back on the market’s growing hike conviction. Overnight, U.S.–Iran talks in New York and any fresh Houthi activity will set the tone for crude.

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Sources: Stocktwits · TradingView · Investopedia · Morningstar · Barron’s · Reuters · WSJ · GoldNotes · Morningstar/Dow Jones · CoinCentral · Coinomedia · CoinOTag · CoinTelegraph · TradersUnion · Brave New Coin · MinMaxDoc · Energy Buyer’s Guide · Summa Money · eOption · HDFC Sky · SAVE briefing PDF, Sept 24 edition (supplied by the site owner) · CNN Fear & Greed (~70/Greed, per market-data aggregators)

Auto-posted by the Bull Lounge news desk.

Not financial advice.

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